US President George W. Bush, right, kisses the Emir of Kuwait Sheik Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, left, during his arrival at Kuwait International Airport, Friday, Jan. 11, 2008, in Kuwait City, Kuwait. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

The Future of Energy

OIL JITTERS: ARE THE DAYS OF CHEAP OIL GONE FOREVER? Peter Katel, The CQ Researcher,  Jan. 4, 2008, pp. 1-24. "Vastly increased demand for oil in rapidly modernizing China and India, warfare and instability in the Middle East and the weakening U.S. dollar have revived fears of a new energy crisis. Some experts predict an oil 'production crunch' within four to five years that will have severe geopolitical and economic impacts, and one expert says the energy supply-demand gap could create "social chaos and war" by 2020." READ MORE.

ENERGY CHOICES TOWARD A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE. José Goldemberg, Environment, Dec. 2007, pp. 7-18. "Twenty years ago, the Bruntland report took account of the state of the world energy -- its supply and demand, safety and sustainability, and availability to poor and rich countries alike. The report foresaw many of the energy challenges we face today and missed a few crucial ones, but one theme remains consistent: there are no simple solutions." READ MORE

A STRATEGIC VIEW OF ENERGY FUTURES. Mathew Burrows, Gregory F. Treverton, Survival, Autumn 2007, pp. 79-90. "While higher gasoline prices at the pump are a nuisance for consumers, they are only a minor drag on the United States and other rich economies, which are much less energy intensive than they were in the 1970s.  This time around, the big strategic issues are not high prices at home but political effects abroad: how will the big winners, like Russia and Iran, use their new leverage? What will need to be done about the losers, like Pakistan and poor African countries-the latter hard hit by the one-two punch of higher energy prices and global warming? " READ MORE.

WHAT RESOURCE WARS? David G. Victor, The National Interest, Nov-Dec 2007, pp. 48-55. "Rising energy prices and mounting concerns about environmental depletion have animated fears that the world may be headed for a spate of 'resource wars'--hot conflicts triggered by a struggle to grab valuable resources. Such fears come in many stripes, but the threat industry has sounded the alarm bells especially loudly in three areas. First is the rise of China, which is poorly endowed with many of the resources it needs--such as oil, gas, timber and most minerals--and has already 'gone out' to the world with the goal of securing what it wants. Violent conflicts may follow as the country shunts others aside. A second potential path down the road to resource wars starts with all the money now flowing into poorly governed but resource-rich countries. Money can fund civil wars and other hostilities, even leaking into the hands of terrorists. And third is global climate change, which could multiply stresses on natural resources and trigger water wars, catalyze the spread of disease or bring about mass migrations." READ MORE

Nuclear Security

New Nuclear Realities. Harold Brown. The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2007-2008, pp. 7–22. The outlook is dark but not despairing. Iran could well produce nuclear weapons during the first half of the next decade. That development is likely to generate pressure on others in the region, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, to follow suit. It is doubtful whether a U.S. security guarantee, even if offered and accepted by those nations, would then be seen as a sufficient substitute for a nuclear weapons capability of their own. READ MORE

Disarming Rogues: Deterring First-Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction. David Szabo. Parameters, Winter 2007-08, pp. 58-70. Military-led reconstruction operations play a key role in a cohesive (national) approach to the conduct of successful counterinsurgency operations. Such an approach requires the precise, discriminate application of nonkinetic effects in support of a unified campaign plan. The conduct of reconstruction operations does not negate the requirement for robust combat forces. Kinetic operations, however, play a supporting role in population-centric, counterinsurgency warfare. READ MORE

Building Confidence in Pakistan's Nuclear Security Kenneth N Luongo, Naeem Salik. Arms Control Today. Dec 2007. pp. 11-18. The control system over nuclear assets, however, includes at least 10 senior officials, military and political, who are fully competent to assume responsibility for the nuclear weapons program. Responsibilities of the NCA include employment and deployment aspects of the nuclear force, coordination of activities of Pakistan's strategic organizations, arms control and disarmament issues, and oversight of the implementation of export controls and safety and security of nuclear installations and materials. READ MORE

US and China

Missing Strategic Opportunity in U.S. China Policy since 9/11: Grasping Tactical Success. Christopher P Twomey. Asian Survey, August 2007. pp. 536-560.
Washington has two long-term interests toward China: promoting a profitable, equitable economic relationship and managing Beijing's challenge to the U.S.-led international order. Although recent policy has achieved many tactical successes in these areas, the predominant record is one of broader strategic failure in the face of the rise of China. READ MORE

The Return of Authoritarian Great Powers. Azar Gat. Foreign Affairs, July/August 2007. pp. 59-62. China and Russia represent a return of economically successful authoritarian capitalist powers, which have been absent since the defeat of Germany and Japan in 1945. Present-day China is the largest player in the international system in terms of population and is experiencing spectacular economic growth. By shifting from communism to capitalism, China has switched to a far more efficient brand of authoritarianism. READ MORE

Seizing the Opportunity for Change in the Taiwan Strait. Yun-han Chu and Andrew J. Nathan. Washington Quarterly, Winter 2007-2008. pp. 61-76. As Taiwan heads into dual national elections—a legislative election scheduled for January 12, 2008, and a presidential election scheduled for March 22, 2008—tensions across the Taiwan Strait seem to be rising. READ MORE

Understanding Chinese and U.S. Crisis Behavior. Wu Xinbo. Washington Quarterly, Winter 2007-2008. pp. 61-76. There have been two accidental crises between China and the United States in the last decade: the U.S. bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in May 1999 and the mid-air collision of a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft and a Chinese fighter plane in April 2001. Such crises not only seriously strained and damaged bilateral ties in the short term, but also created a negative long-term impact on their relations. READ MORE

Beyond Insurgency

Stability, Reconstruction Skills Key to Long Lasting Security. Lawrence P. Farrell Jr. National Defense. January 2008, online article. As U.S. forces carry out the difficult job of stabilizing and rebuilding Iraq, civilian and military leaders are beginning to realize that this nation-building expertise will be critical in the future. READ MORE

Strengthening U.S. Strategic Planning. Aaron L. Friedberg. The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2007-2008, pp. 7–22. pp. 47–60. The U.S. government has lost the capacity to conduct serious, sustained national strategic planning. Although offices and bureaus scattered throughout the executive branch perform parts of this task for their respective agencies, no one place brings all the pieces together and integrates them into anything resembling a coherent, comprehensive whole. Worse still, to judge by the lack of any real effort in recent years to correct this shortcoming, there appears to be very little concern about what it may mean for the nation's security. READ MORE

The Military and Reconstruction Operations. Mick Ryan. Parameters, Winter 2007-2008, pp.58-70. The post-Cold War trend of convergence between military and nonmilitary tasks has accelerated over the past six years as western nations seek to defeat the insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq.1 One result of this convergence is an increased role for military forces in the conduct of humanitarian missions previously viewed as the sole preserve of nongovernmental organizations. This transition is reflected in a greater emphasis on reconstruction activities by the military in contemporary operations. READ MORE

Islam and the World

ALL NEED TOLERATION: SOME OBSERVATIONS ABOUT RECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPERIENCES OF RELIGIOUS MINORITIES IN THE UNITED STATES AND WESTERN EUROPE. Gustav Niebuhr, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, July 2007, pp. 172-186. "Differences between Americans and Western Europeans in their public perceptions of largely immigrant religious minorities-particularly Muslims-have lately been thrown into high relief, with Europeans appearing increasingly less comfortable with a growing religious pluralism in their midst." READ MORE.

CONSTRUCTING THE 'UMMAH' IN EUROPEAN SECURITY: BETWEEN EXIT, VOICE AND LOYALTY. Frédéric Volpi, Government and Opposition, Summer 2007, pp. 451–470. "The security discourses and practices that grew exponentially in Europe after 9/11 facilitated the elaboration of a counter-discourse on identity and security among many Muslim communities. In this context, the state's attempts to 'discipline' the Muslim communities produced an instrumental alliance between officials and those Islamic leaders deemed moderate enough to represent the 'Muslim community'. Undermining this alliance of convenience are not primarily the global terror networks that triggered the securitization overdrive but rather those 'amateur jihadists' whose individualized approaches to religiosity increasingly undermine the political efforts to organize and institutionalize Islamic authority inside the framework of the nation-state." READ MORE.

ISLAM'S BLOODY INNARDS? RELIGION AND POLITICAL TERROR, 1980-2000. Indra de Soysa, Ragnhild, Nordås, International Studies Quarterly, December 2007, pp. 927-943. "Culturalists claim that political outcomes, such as respect for human rights, are deeply rooted in culture. Some have singled out Islam as particularly problematic. We assess whether Muslim societies suffer higher levels of political terror compared with others." READ MORE.

A WORLD WITHOUT ISLAM. Graham E. Fuller, Foreign Policy, January/February 2008, pp. "Given our intense current focus on terrorism, war, and rampant anti-Americanism—some of the most emotional international issues of the day—it’s vital to understand the true sources of these crises. Is Islam, in fact, the source of the problem, or does it tend to lie with other less obvious and deeper factors?" READ MORE.

National Identity

RELIGION AND NATIONAL IDENTITY IN AMERICA AND EUROPE.  James Kurth.  Society, October 2007, pp. 120-125.  America and Europe have had very different religious experiences, and these differences have continuing consequences. In America, the preponderance of Reform Protestantism gave rise to religious and political pluralism, a religious marketplace, and the continuing vitality of the churches. In Europe, the dominance of state churches gave rise to the eventual rejection of these churches and religions when the traditional political and social authorities were rejected, particularly by the Generation of 1968. However, Europe’s extreme secularization has rendered it confused and ineffective in dealing with the new religious challenge posed by Muslim immigrant communities.   READ MORE

BEING AMERICAN. WHAT’S IN A NAME?  Preston King. Government and Opposition, Vol. 42, No. 4, pp. 593–625, 2007.  Preston King's  'Being American’ is a two-sided identity called ‘citizenship’. This involves a set (the state) and its members (citizens). The citizen (say Whitman) may be ‘fully’ American, just as some particular nation (say Native American, African, British, Jewish) may be so. But no one citizen (the patriot), or subset of citizens (perhaps the ethnic group), nor even the set of all citizens (past and present) reflects or symbolizes the whole of what ‘being American’ might mean." READ MORE

Science

SCIENCE IN AMERICA.  ARE WE FALLING BEHIND IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY?  Tom Price.  CQ Researcher,  January 11, 2008, pp. 27-47. Many leaders in business, government and education warn that a shortage of scientists is jeopardizing the nation's world leadership in science and technology, along with its military supremacy and high standard of living. For a short-term fix, they propose loosening immigration restrictions to allow more high-skilled workers from overseas. Long term, they say the United States must greatly improve pre-college education, produce more college graduates with mathematics and science degrees and increase investment in research and development. READ MORE

2008 Presidential Election

WILL AMERICANS ELECT A PRESIDENT THEY DON'T LIKE?  Burt Solomon.  National Journal, December 8, 2007, pp. 32-38.  In presidential politics, as in every other form of popular entertainment, personality counts.  And while Republican Rudy Giuliani and Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton possess celebrity in spades, they had better hope that being hard to like won't hurt their election prospects. READ MORE