The Crisis & What to Do About It. George Soros. New York Review of Books, December 2008. n.p. The salient feature of the current financial crisis is that it was not caused by some external shock like OPEC raising the price of oil or a particular country or financial institution defaulting. The crisis was generated by the financial system itself. This fact—that the defect was inherent in the system —contradicts the prevailing theory, which holds that financial markets tend toward equilibrium and that deviations from the equilibrium either occur in a random manner or are caused by some sudden external event to which markets have difficulty adjusting. The severity and amplitude of the crisis provides convincing evidence that there is something fundamentally wrong with this prevailing theory and with the approach to market regulation that has gone with it. To understand what has happened, and what should be done to avoid such a catastrophic crisis in the future, will require a new way of thinking about how markets work. READ MORE

Global Challenges

History's Back. Robert Kagan. The Weekly Standard, August 2008, pp. 18-23. The hope at the end of the Cold War was that nations would pursue economic integration as an alternative to geopolitical competition, that they would seek the "soft" power of commercial engagement and economic growth as an alternative to the "hard" power of military strength or geopolitical confrontation. After the second World War, another moment in history when hopes for a new kind of international order were rampant, Hans Morgenthau warned idealists against imagining that at some point "the final curtain would fall and the game of power politics would no longer be played." Reinhold Niebuhr, who always warned against Americans' ambitions and excessive faith in their own power, also believed, with a faith and ambition of his own, that "the world problem cannot be solved if America does not accept its full share of responsibility in solving it" Today the United States shares that responsibility with the rest of the democratic world, which is infinitely stronger than it was when World War II ended. READ MORE

The Transition - The Obama Administration

THE NEW LIBERALISM.  George Packer.  New Yorker, November 17, 2008, n.p.  After looking back at presidential history, interviewing President-elect Obama's advisors, and reviewing Obama's words from his books and campaign speeches, Packer tries to describe how Obama might lead the country. Packer compares this moment to the election of President Roosevelt in 1932 but believes in Obama's idea of "deliberative democracy", in which adults listen to one another -- "who attempt to persuade one another by means of argument and evidence, and who remain open to the possibility that they could be wrong." Obama reads widely from both the "right-wing and left-wing book clubs" but Packer states that Obama's liberalism is more procedural than substantive -- his most fervent belief is in rules and standards of serious debate. Packer believes that Obama will favor activist government in questions of social welfare such as jobs, income, health care and energy but will attempt to accommodate differences on social and legal issues such as guns, abortion, the death penalty, same-sex marriage, the courts and the constitution. READ MORE 

THE DEFENSE INHERITANCE: CHALLENGES AND CHOICES FOR THE NEXT PENTAGON TEAM.  Michele Flournoy; Shawn Brimley.  Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2008, pp. 59-76.  The authors, both with the Center for a New American Security, note that when Barack Obama is inaugurated in January, he will face “the most daunting defense inheritance in generations” -– wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; the search for bin Laden; the increasing power of China, Russia, India, and Pakistan; changes in the nature of war, as shown by the Israeli experience in Lebanon; cyberspace warfare; instability on the world’s oceans; and broader systemic problems such as climate change and increased competition for resources, including food. This dire situation is compounded by American budgetary woes made worse by the economic crisis, the spiraling costs of entitlements, and the exploding costs of the two wars. The Pentagon will be forced to make tough choices regarding personnel and weapons programs. The authors note that the Defense Department “cannot afford to continue hemorrhaging taxpayer dollars because of its broken acquisition system.” Other problems facing the new administration include countering weapons of mass destruction, reducing the U.S. nuclear posture, reexamining the U.S. global military posture, sustaining the all-volunteer force, fixing dysfunctional management processes, and improving interagency cooperation. READ MORE 

Africa's Fate

CONGO: BETWEEN HOPE AND DESPAIR. Michael Deibert, World Policy Journal Summer 2008, pp. 63–68. "Congo’s bloody decades must be seen in the broader context of Central Africa’s regional conflicts that have left vast territories traumatized and victimized by rebel forces that sweep across borders, often with the complicity of governments that have profited from the terror and violence." READ MORE

CONGO: SECURING PEACE, SUSTAINING PROGRESS. Anthony W. Gambino Council on Foreign Relations, October 2008, var. pages. "This report lays out a thoughtful agenda for U.S. policy toward the Democratic Republic of Congo, arguing that what happens there should matter to the United States--for humanitarian reasons as well as economic and strategic ones." READ MORE

AFRICA: MANY HILLS TO CLIMB. Michelle Sieff, World Policy Journal, Fall 2008, pp. 185–195. "Africa in 2033 will look somewhat like Africa in 2008: it will still face challenges, but different challenges than today. Internal wars, such as in Sudan, will no longer be the primary threats to the security of Africa’s populations. Instead, transnational organized crime syndicates and radical Islamist groups will become the greatest threats to civilian life in Africa. But there are positives too: economic growth will continue, democracy will spread, though its progress may be halting and unpredictable." READ MORE

USAFRICOM: THE MILITARIZATION OF US FOREIGN POLICY? Dennis R.J. Penn,
Joint Forces Quarterly, July 2008, pp. 74-78. "USAFRICOM represents a logical step in proactive peacetime engagement. Yet the new command underscores an appearance of policy militarization and thus potentially ultimately weakens the link between the two threads. A nonmilitary lead coupled with still more diversified U.S. Government participation could strengthen the bond between military and nonmilitary threads of US foreign policy. To do this requires addressing the scale of required change and the perceptions of militarizing our foreign policy." READ MORE

Climate Change and Energy

A NATIONAL RENEWABLE PORTFOLIO STANDARD? NOT PRACTICAL.  Jay Apt, Lester B. Lave et al., Issues in Science and Technology, Fall 2008, var. pages. "Legislation that mandates specified electricity production from renewable sources paves a path to costly mistakes because it excludes other sources that can meet the country’s goals." READ MORE

THE SHORT LIST: THE MOST EFFECTIVE ACTIONS U.S. HOUSEHOLDS CAN TAKE TO CURB CLIMATE CHANGE. Gerald T Gardner, Paul C Stern. Environment, Sep/Oct 2008, pp. 12-24. "The U.S. Congress, presidential candidates, lobbyists, and political commentators have focused much of their attention lately on the need for policies to limit the United States' contribution to climate change. These policy discussions have been strangely silent about a huge reservoir of potential for reducing carbon emissions and mitigating climate change that can be tapped much more quickly and directly. U.S. households account for about 38 percent of national carbon emissions through their direct actions, a level of emissions greater than that of any entire country except China and larger than the entire U.S. industrial sector."  READ MORE

STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ADDRESS THE TWIN CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY ALTERNATIVES. Irma S Russell, Jeffery S Dennis, Natural Resources & Environment, Summer 2008, pp. 9-15. "Lawmakers, regulators, and the world all face a perfect storm of energy and climate challenges, and that storm is converging on traditional electricity policy. The cost of electricity to consumers is rising at an alarming rate. At the same time, news of global climate change and of the United States' role in it has focused all levels of government on the issue of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly from the energy sector." READ MORE

Iraq

IRAQ: ARE WE THERE YET? Judith S. Yaphe, Current History, December 2008, pp. 403-409. “Iraq’s long-term chances for survival will be easier to predict when we see how Iraqis navigate their way through the crises of the coming months.” READ MORE

TIME FOR A NEW STRATEGY. William MCDonough, Parameters, Autumn 2008, pp. 109-19. "After five and a half years, America’s mission is largely accomplished in Iraq. Now is the time to significantly reduce the US presence in Iraq and temporarily supply the technical assistance and security training Iraq needs to solidify the hard-earned achievements and gains of recent years." READ MORE

Nations in Turmoil

INDIA: RICHER, POORER, HOTTER, ARMED. Mira Kamdar, World Policy Journal, Fall 2008, pp. 95-107. "Few would have predicted 25 years ago India’s dramatic rise as a global economic force, imagined that one day the iconic British luxury brands Range Rover and Jaguar would be purchased by an Indian company, or believed that the United States would form a strategic partnership with a staunch ally of its Cold War enemy, the Soviet Union." READ MORE

STEMMING THE RISE OF ISLAMIC EXTREMISM IN BANGLADESH. Sajeeb Wazed, Carl Ciovacco, Harvard International Review, Nov. 19, 2008, var. pages. "Bangladesh has been a secular Muslim state since its independence from Pakistan and founding by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1971. While its short history has been full of military coup d’états, it has always returned to its roots as a secular democratic state. There are, however, troubling new signs of a shift towards a growing Islamism that could jeopardize the sanctity of secularism in the country." READ MORE

THE ROOTS OF FAILURE IN AFGHANISTAN. Thomas Barfield, Current History, December 2008, pp. 410-417. “Afghanistan has once again entered American political consciousness after a long period of neglect. Overshadowed for years by the war in Iraq, Afghanistan drew little press attention when things seemed to be going well, or
at least not very badly, after US-led forces toppled the Taliban in 2001. While the two candidates agreed that the Bush administration had neglected Afghanistan, and both recommended sending more troops, neither provided an explanation for how initial US success there had been allowed to unravel and what needed to be done to fix the situation—if it could be fixed at all.” READ MORE

THAILAND SINCE THE COUP. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Journal of Democracy, October 2008, pp. 140-153. "Torn between populism and those who fail to respect democratic limits in combating it, Thailand badly needs to locate a middle ground where the best of its old traditions can help it adjust to the new challenges that it faces." READ MORE

A Multipolar World ?

A CONCERT-BALANCE STRATEGY FOR A MULTIPOLAR WORLD. Michael Lind, Parameters, Autumn 2008, pp. 48-60. "The United States is a superpower in search of a strategy. Following the end of the Cold War, no new grand strategy has won the bipartisan support that underpinned America’s strategy of containment from President Truman to President Reagan. Enthusiastic promoters of globalization occasionally argue that international trade will be a panacea for conflict, at least among developed nations. The neoconservative vision of unilateral US global hegemony always lacked adequate military forces and funding to realize its ambitious goals. Now, in the aftermath of the Iraq War, the hegemony strategy also lacks public support. Most critics of the hegemony strategy, however, have failed to propose a credible alternative capable of guiding US national security." The philosophical void at the highest levels of American statecraft should be of particular concern for America’s armed forces."  READ MORE

RETURN FROM 9/11 PTSD TO GLOBAL LEADER. Yoichi Kato, The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2008, pp. 165-173. "After suffering from what could be described as 9/11 post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), Washington should not seek to impose a single set of values but should broaden its security agenda, coexist with diversity, and forge a durable order based on consensus." READ MORE

THE TYRANNY OF FALSE VISION: AMERICA'S UNIPOLAR FANTASY. David P. Calleo, Survival, Oct/Nov 2008, pp. 61-78. "For the past two decades, the American political imagination has been possessed by a hazardous geopolitical vision; the United States is defined as the dominant power in a closely integrated and 'unipolar' international system. A century of history has done much to encourage this view. Americans have trouble realising how revolutionary and threatening their unipolar vision can appear to others. A world system dominated by one superpower is a bold and radical programme. If successful, it would mean, for the first time in modern history, a world without a general balance of power." READ MORE

The Middle East Back Burner

US PRESIDENCY AND THE MIDDLE EAST: HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY. Alon Ben-Meir, The World Today, December 2008, pp. 19-21. "After eight years of misguided Middle East policy from President George Bush's administration, an enlightened strategy to tackle the region's plight is overdue. This must include an approach that will bring change to an area consumed by conflict and division and filled with disdain toward the United States. Although the massive economic crisis facing America is and should be President-elect Barack Obama's first priority, he must not hesitate to confront the simmering conflicts in the Middle East that cannot be relegated to the back burner without severely undermining the strategic interest and security of the US." READ MORE

FIX THE MIDDLE EASTERN MESS. Glenn Kessler, World Policy Journal, Autumn 2008, pp.135–142. "From their perspective, the only thing Arab leaders possibly fear more than the United States meddling is the United States disengaging, so the real answer might be, 'Fix this mess.' What the region needs and wants from the United States is sophisticated diplomacy." READ MORE

Muslims & the West

HOW MUSLIMS MADE EUROPE. Kwame Anthony Appiah, New York Review of Books, November 6, 2008, var. pages. "David Levering Lewis's rich and engaging God's Crucible shows that it took two things to make Europeans think of themselves as a people. One was the creation of a vast Holy Roman Empire by the six-foot-four, thick-necked, fair-haired Frankish warrior king we know as Charlemagne. The other was the development, in the Iberian peninsula on the southwestern borders of his dominion, of the Muslim culture of Spain, which the Arabs called al-Andalus. In the process that made the various tribes of Europe into a single people, what those tribes had in common and what distinguished them from their Muslim neighbors were both important. This is, by now, a familiar idea. But God's Crucible offers a more startling proposal: in making the civilization that modern Europeans inherit, the cultural legacy of al-Andalus is at least as important as the legacy of the Catholic Franks. In borrowing from their great Other, they filled out the European Self." READ MORE

ISLAM'S WAY TO FREEDOM. Thomas F Farr, First Things, Nov 2008, pp. 24-28. "The many strands of Islamist radicalism are a terrible threat to vital American interests. The dangers include transnational terrorism fueled by jihad and the growth of extreme Shari'a law in such key Muslim states as Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia- all while the Iranian clerical regime supports Islamist extremists and seeks the capacity for nuclear weapons. These threats are unlikely to be defeated by U.S. military power alone, even when that power is combined with good intelligence, efficient law enforcement and creative diplomacy. What American foreign policy needs, as well, is a new religious realism. If American diplomacy in the next administration is to be successful, it must no longer treat religion as peripheral to the activity of governing, especially democratic governing." READ MORE

MILITANT ISLAM AND THE WEST: BLOOD BROTHERS. Faisal Devji, The World Today, December 2008, pp. 25-27. "While scholars, journalists and policy-makers in Europe and America invariably describe Al Qaeda as a foreign, exotic threat that is difficult to understand, militants who identify with it routinely view their enemies in the most familiar of terms. Whether or not they really understand the west, these men's professions of intimacy with it hint at a more complex relationship. How does the radical Muslim's closeness to his enemy help us understand the character of globalised militancy today? And is it possible to find a global project to replace the murderous mayhem? READ MORE

XENOPHOBIA ON THE CONTINENT. Andrew Kohut and Richard Wike, The National Interest, Nov/Dec 2008, var. pages. "Anti-Semitism is on the march in Europe. But the European’s new turn toward isolationism goes even further than that. With negative views of Jews rooted in a rising tide of xenophobia based on a growing dislike for globalization, immigration and Muslims, this is a problem not to be ignored." READ MORE

Information society

SURFACE ROUTINES: HOW WE READ ON THE WEB.  Michael Meyer.  Columbia Journalism Review, November/December 2008, pp.   People’s limitations when faced with the huge volume of information on the Internet, coupled with their compulsion to know what is there, is changing the way people read printed and online material. In-depth reading is often replaced by skimming greater quantities of content. Studies, such as that by Jakob Nielsen, show that people read much less in their pursuit of relevant information. Although some fear a negative impact on introspective literacy, evidence from a 2007 Poynter Institute EyeTrack study indicates readers online read substantially more text than those devoted to print, and were drawn by text rather than photos. The author concludes that while the Web may influence behavior, it merely highlights cultural inadequacies already present in social and educational institutions. READ MORE

OVERLOAD! JOURNALISM’S BATTLE FOR RELEVANCE IN AN AGE OF TOO MUCH INFORMATION.  Bree Nordenson. Columbia Journalism Review, November/December 2008, pp.  The vast amount of information available on the Internet, and the limited ability of human beings to consume it, is affecting news production, distribution and design. It may also have a long-term negative effect on readers subjected to the overload, studies find. Some news organizations, such as the Associated Press, have taken heed and altered their formats; nonetheless, interruptive clutter abounds. Seemingly limitless freedom of choice becomes a burden which may change the roles of news agencies and journalists from being gatekeepers to guides through the information glut. READ MORE

Demographics

DECLINING BIRTHRATES.  WILL THE TREND WORSEN GLOBAL ECONOMIC WOES.  Sarah Glazer.  CQ Researcher,  November 21, 2009, pp. 963-983.  Nations around the globe worry that low or falling birthrates will cause severe economic problems, including shortages of workers to pay into social security systems to support growing numbers of retirees. While the coming retirement of American baby boomers engenders concern, the United States is exceptional among major industrialized Western nations because its birthrate produces enough children to maintain the population as elderly people die. Most of Europe as well as Japan and China are well below population replacement levels. The current global economic downturn could worsen the situation by forcing young couples to postpone having children until the economy improves. Meanwhile, governments are casting about for solutions, such as cutting spending on the elderly, requiring workers to stay on the job longer before drawing benefits and offering cash bonuses to families to encourage them to have more children.   READ MORE