The Financial Crisis and Its Aftermath

HOW THE CRASH WILL RESHAPE AMERICA.  Richard Florida, The Atlantic, March 2009. The crash of 2008 continues to reverberate loudly nationwide—destroying jobs, bankrupting businesses, and displacing homeowners. But already, it has damaged some places much more severely than others. On the other side of the crisis, America’s economic landscape will look very different than it does today. What fate will the coming years hold for New York, Charlotte, Detroit, Las Vegas? Will the suburbs be ineffably changed? Which cities and regions can come back strong? And which will never come back at all?  Richard Florida is the author of The Rise of the Creative Class and the director of the Martin Prosperity Institute at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management. READ MORE

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND THE GLOBAL CRISIS OF MATURITY.  Halal, William E. The Futurist. March/April 2009. pp. 39-47.  "It's clear now that a technology revolution is under way as ever more sophisticated information systems create unprecedented gains in knowledge, leading to breakthroughs everywhere. This article presents an authoritative forecast of technology breakthroughs, showing that relentless advances are driving a creative transformation of business, society, the global order, and even what it means to be human. It briefly outlines the TechCast research method, which pools the knowledge of 100 experts online. The article integrates the forecasts into longitudinal scenarios that "macro-forecast" the most likely path civilization will follow over the next 20 years -- a virtual trip through time. The major conclusion from this analysis is that the world is facing a global crisis of maturity, the most salient example being the near-collapse of the global banking system in October 2008."  William E. Halal is professor emeritus of science, technology, and innovation at George Washington University, Washington, D.C., cofounder of the Institute for Knowledge & Innovation, and President of TechCast LLC. He may be contacted at Halal@gwu.edu.  READ MORE
 

Engaging Asia

U.S. ENGAGEMENT IN EAST ASIA: A CASE FOR 'TRACK TWO' DIPLOMACY. Sarah Graham and John Kelley, Orbis, January 2009, pp. 80-98. "As the Bush presidency draws to a close, the foreign policy community is taking stock of contemporary U.S.-Northeast Asian relations, assessing the challenges and opportunities that are likely to confront the next administration. China presents both in abundance, as reflected in ongoing tensions and misunderstandings in the Sino-American bilateral relationship. This article assesses the prospects for Washington to improve its relations with China through the mechanism of 'track two' diplomacy. First, we expand on the track two concept by examining its main components and functions with illustrative examples. We extend the existing conceptualization of track two beyond its traditional conflict resolution functions and develop an account of it as a mechanism for policy coordination and the reorientation of regional dynamics from conflict to cooperation. Second, we identify major areas of U.S. interest in Northeast Asia and show how track two diplomacy might usefully be pursued within these contexts. Our analysis culminates with recommendations on how the Unites States should apply track two strategies in its relations with China." READ MORE

ASIA'S CHALLENGED DEMOCRACIES. Larry Diamond and Andrew J. Nathan, The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2009, pp. 143-157. "Public survey data from China, Hong Kong, Japan, and five new democracies reveals that East Asian democracies are in distress. Public satisfaction with the regime is highest in China, lowest in Japan and Taiwan, and fragile in the other new democracies." READ MORE

WHY EAST ASIAN WAR IS UNLIKELY. Richard A Bitzinger, Barry Desker, Survival, Dec 2008/Jan 2009, pp. 105—128. "The Asia-Pacific region can be regarded as a zone of both relative insecurity and strategic stability. It contains some of the world's most significant flashpoints--the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, the Siachen Glacier--where tensions between nations could escalate to the point of major war. In Southeast Asia, countries are united in a common geopolitical and economic organization--the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). ASEAN has played a key role in conceiving and establishing broader regional institutions such as the East Asian Summit, ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and South Korea) and the ASEAN Regional Forum. Here, Bitzinger and Desker delineate why the war in Asia--while not inconceivable--is unlikely." READ MORE

WHY WAR IN ASIA REMAINS THINKABLE. Hugh White, Survival, Dec 2008/Jan 2009,  pp. 85—104. "For over 30 years, East Asia has enjoyed peace such as it has probably never known before. In Northeast Asia, the region's major powers--China, Japan and the United States--have maintained harmonious and cooperative relationships. Here, White looks at how the order in Asia arose during the ten years from 1965-1975 and how that peace will be sustained for another 30 years and beyond. War in Asia remains thinkable because the international order that has kept the peace for more than 30 years is under pressure." READ MORE

Rethinking Afghanistan

RETHINKING U.S. POLICY IN AFGHANISTAN. Federico Manfredi, World Policy Journal, Winter 2008/09, pp. 23–30. "A new U.S. president is about to inherit the deepening crisis in Afghanistan. As the war enters its eighth year, the United States is striving to regain momentum, increasing troop levels, and stepping up military operations to subdue a resurgent Taliban movement and stabilize the floundering Afghan government. These efforts enjoy solid bipartisan support. Indeed, the general consensus in Washington is that the war in Afghanistan remains a legitimate cause that is crucial to the U.S. national interest—a 'good war' well worth a reinvigorated commitment. However, President Barack Obama should rethink the conventional wisdom. While the invasion of Afghanistan made sense in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, the current nation-building-cum-counterinsurgency enterprise is an unnecessary burden that the United States can and should abandon." READ MORE

THE WAY FORWARD IN AFGHANISTAN: THREE VIEWS. Barnett R. Rubin; Amin Saikal; Julian Lindley-French, Survival, February-March 2009, pp. 1,83—96. "The situation in Afghanistan has turned so far against the United States, NATO, the international community, and those Afghans who originally hoped that the post-11 September 2001 intervention would finally bring them a chance for normal lives, that it will be very difficult to salvage. Al-Qaeda has established a new safe haven in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan, from which it supports insurgencies in Afghanistan and Pakistan and continues its global planning against the United States and its allies." READ MORE

NATO: THE UNITED STATES, TRANSFORMATION AND THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN. Mark Webber, The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, January 2009, pp. 46-63. "During the Bush years, NATO exhibited in stark form two trends which have long characterised its development: periodic exposure to crisis and division, and a subordination to American leadership. Despite signs of American indifference towards the alliance, talk of the Bush administration levering a break with NATO was always overstated, particularly so during its second term of office. Views of NATO after 2004 were shaped by Afghanistan giving rise, in fact, to a return to the alliance on America’s part. NATO remains important to Bush’s successor but on terms which are as demanding as those of his predecessors. NATO, in other words, is valued in so far as it accords with current US foreign policy priorities. The safest assumption in this regard is that Obama will continue to favour the trend towards a global NATO pursued by the Bush administration. However, retreat (or defeat) in Afghanistan could hasten a contrary trend towards a consolidating NATO with a renewed concentration on the wider Europe." READ MORE

Kosovo's Independence

MUDDLING THROUGH IN KOSOVO. Oisín Tansey and Dominik Zaum, Survival, February–March 2009, pp. 1,13—20. "Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence of 17 February 2008 has made visible the deep divisions between the United States and its European allies on the one hand, and Russia on the other; divisions that shaped the political dynamics of the Kosovo crisis nine years ago as they do today. The failure to settle the status question through diplomacy has thrown the UN into crisis, leaving the Security Council deadlocked and the international community in Kosovo without direction and momentum. It has led to the de facto partition of Kosovo and control by Belgrade of the Serb-inhabited northern municipalities, and left the international community struggling to define the nature of its engagement. The political divisions that have heightened the problem in Kosovo over the last nine years are unlikely to be resolved soon and, if anything, recent developments have accentuated them. New and creative approaches to stabilising Kosovo and promoting its economic and institutional development are necessary. Current European Union projects in support of the peace process in Northern Ireland might offer a model for such engagement." READ MORE

THE REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF KOSOVO INDEPENDENCE. Gordon N. Bardos, Mediterranean Quarterly, Fall 2008, pp. 54-67. "The support of the United States and some European Union countries for Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence has in many ways contributed to a deterioration of the security situation in southeastern Europe. The fundamental strategic assumption of promoters of Kosovo’s independence—that Kosovo was the last open question left over from the breakup of Yugoslavia—is likely to prove wrong. Thus, given the breakdown in the international and regional consensus on the contours of a legitimate Balkan political and security order, the instability of Kosovo and other states in the region is in reality likely to increase in the post-Kosovo independence period." READ MORE

THE BEGINNING AND THE END OF HUMANITARIAN INTERVENTION: KOSOVO 1999. Robert Wilton, Defense & Security Analysis, Dec 2008, pp. 363—380. "Wilton assesses the practical results of the 1999 humanitarian intervention in Kosovo. A number of factors seem to confirm that the intervention in Kosovo was a success: the million refugees who came home; the relative stability of Kosovo in the years since 1999; the successful declaration of independence without a single casualty in Kosovo; and the model of multi-ethnicity now on offer for Kosovo. At the same time, doubts remain: failure to protect the Serbs of Kosovo in 1999 and rioting in 2004 question both NATO's capacity to do the job it claimed and the legitimacy of the Kosovo that emerged from the intervention. The effect of independence was to push Serbia into isolation and then Government collapse, and this with the continuing vacuum of authority in Serb-dominated northern Kosovo might suggest that the international community had only exchanged one unstable state for two." READ MORE

Social Media/Web 2.0

AGENCIES STRUGGLING TO MAKE CONNECTIONS ONLINE.  David Herbert.  National Journal, February 2, 2009, n.p..  President Obama wants government agencies to be more transparent and communicate more with their audiences online. Many agencies have been using social-networking media long before Obama's directives, but with little success, the author says. Bureaucratic inefficiency and outdated and inflexible laws are partially to blame, Herbert writes, but "the biggest problem facing most agencies isn't the trap of outdated regulations but the failure to attract an audience." The article examines how web managers need to think about how to use Web 2.0 tools, not just to use them for the sake of using them. It also examines how the successful government social networking sites are the ones that allow an open discussion. READ MORE

Transparency

Sifry, Micah A SEE-THROUGH SOCIETY.  Micah Sifry.  Columbia Journalism Review, January-February 2009, pp. 43-48.  The public reaction to the Congressional emergency bailout legislation in September 2008 was overwhelming; an unprecedented number of e-mails crashed the House of Representatives web site, and several independent web sites that track Congressional activity were swamped. That explosion of public engagement online, Sifry says, signals “the beginning of a new age of political transparency. As more people go online to find, create, and share vital political information with one another ... and as the tools for analyzing data and connecting people become more powerful and easier to use, politics and governance alike are inexorably becoming more open. Citizens will have more opportunity at all levels of government to take an active part in understanding and participating in the democratic decisions that affect their lives.” City governments are leading the way; the District of Columbia, for example, since 2006 has put online all the raw data it has collected on government operations, education, health care, crime, and other topics on the CapStat online service. The new Obama administration has expressed a commitment to expanding government transparency with online databases. READ MORE
 

Values

TWIN PEAKS.  How Lincoln and Darwin Shaped the Modern World.  Adam Gopnik. Smithsonian, February 2009, pp. 50-54.  Abraham Lincoln and Charles Darwin were born on the same day in February 1809, on opposite sides of the Atlantic and into very different circumstances; in the era in which they were born, people mostly believed that life on Earth as they knew it had been that way since the beginning of time, and that societies without existing order were inherently unstable. By the time Lincoln and Darwin had died, history had changed, and what they had done, written or said had contributed significantly to that change. In the early nineteenth century, democracy was a fringe idea in the minds of a small number of idealists, and the future of democracy in America was far from assured. At the same time, the sciences were changing our view of the earth and how life evolved. The author writes that Lincoln and Darwin not only represent the “two pillars of our society” -– liberal democracy and the human sciences -– but that they have come to represent that because they wrote so clearly, and that their writings are remarkably fresh even today. READ MORE