Terrorism

The Madrid Bombings and Global Jihadism. Fernando Reinares, Survival, April 2010, pp. 83-104. "Since the attacks of 11 September 2001 on New York and Washington DC there has been an ongoing controversy about whether the real threat of global terrorism is posed by al-Qaeda, its territorial extensions and affiliated organisations, or by decentralised groups inspired by, but unconnected to, such entities. The 11 March 2004 Madrid train bombings are often held up as the archetype of an independent local cell at work, and the perpetrators depicted as self-recruited, leaderless terrorists. Six years after the blasts, however, new evidence connecting some of the most notorious members of the Madrid bombing network with al-Qaeda's senior leadership, along with features of the terrorist network itself and distinctive elements of the likely strategy behind the blasts, suggest that these assumptions are misleading. Judicial documentation now fully accessible at Spain's National Court and other relevant primary or secondary sources can help us better understand what the attacks can tell us about al-Qaeda and a global terrorism in transition, as well as about the changing nature of the threat to open societies." READ MORE

The Politics of Punishing Terrorists. Anthony F Lang Jr., Ethics & International Affairs, Spring 2010, pp. 3-14. "On November 17, 2009, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder announced his decision to try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed—as well as four other alleged coconspirators to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States—in a New York federal court. The decision reflects the Obama administration's efforts to dismantle the system of military courts and detention centers that had been a focal point of the Bush administration's 'war on terror.' The response of prominent members of the Bush administration and other leading Republicans to the announcement was swift, as they accused the Obama administration of failing to understand the danger of trying a terrorist on US soil. A secondary concern, expressed at Attorney General Holder's testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee on November 18, was that the trial would give the accused the chance to avoid conviction. The protections of a legal team and the vagaries of juries, it was argued, could result in a suspected terrorist escaping justice. The decision to try Mohammed in New York has also generated controversy in Europe and among international legal experts." READ MORE

Assessing Measures Designed to Protect the Homeland. John Mueller, Policy Studies Journal, Feb 2010, pp. 1-21. "Some general parameters are proposed for evaluating homeland security measures that seek to make potential targets notably less vulnerable to terrorist attack, and these are then applied to specific policy considerations. Since the number of targets is essentially unlimited, since the probability that any given target will be attacked is near zero, since the number and competence of terrorists is limited, since target-selection is effectively a near-random process, and since a terrorist is free to redirect attention from a protected target to an unprotected one of more or less equal consequence, protection seems to be sensible only in a limited number of instances." READ MORE

Terrorism Studies. Nicholas Lemann, New Yorker,  April 26, 2010, var.pages. "Nicholas Lemann reviews several books on terrorism studies that use tools of analysis such as realism, rational choice, game theory and decision theory. 'Clinical and bloodless modes of thinking' he calls them, ones that offer important lessons on terrorism and counterinsurgency." READ MORE

Nuclear Non Proliferation

Taking the Field: Obama's Nuclear Reforms. Joseph Cirincione, Survival, April 2010, pp. 117-128. "US President Barack Obama's nuclear-security agenda is in trouble. It is behind schedule, under-staffed, under attack and battered by some less-than-cooperative international partners. Critics of the administration have dominated the domestic public debate. But after a year of analysis, discussion and speeches, the Obama administration has reached internal consensus, lined up its nuclear initiatives, and begun organising its congressional supporters. The Obama team is finally ready to take the field. The new strategy will roll out in a tight sequence of reports, events, hearings and votes over the first half of 2010. The overall goal is to transition US nuclear policy from one still based on a Cold War strategy of massive arsenals to one suited to prevent, deter and defeat the more discrete threats of the twenty-first century." READ MORE

The NPT Holdouts. Natasha Barnes, Tanya Ogilvie-White, Rodrigo Alvarez Valdes, Nonproliferation Review, March 2010, pp. 95-113. "This article assesses the impact of the U.S.-led disarmament agenda on the disarmament diplomacy and policies of the three nuclear-capable states not party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)India, Israel, and Pakistan. These states, often referred to as NPT holdouts, undermine the application of the NPT obligations on all parties. Universality of the treaty framework has long been considered vital to strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime and consolidate non-nuclear norms. But can new U.S.-led disarmament momentum create the necessary dynamics to encourage the holdouts to disarm, or is this wishful thinking? This article argues that sustained disarmament momentum from the Western NWS will not be enougha more comprehensive approach to disarmament is needed, including a genuine commitment by all NWS to engage in transparency and reductions, and full nuclear compliance and cooperation by Iran." READ MORE

STARTing Over. James Kitfield, National Journal, May 1, 2010, var. pp. When President Obama sends New START to the Senate in early May in hopes of ratification this year, its arrival will stimulate brain synapses and muscle memories that have atrophied since the end of the Cold War. Only about a quarter of today's senators were serving when the chamber ratified the START I pact in 1991. The last major arms control battle on Capitol Hill, over the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, ended in a bitterly fought Senate rejection of the agreement in October 1999. Now, a new generation of lawmakers will have to immerse themselves in the carefully reasoned insanity of "mutually assured destruction," as well as the tedious minutiae of missile telemetry, verification protocols, and the tangled linkages between strategic offensive and defensive weapons. READ MORE

Haim Saban, who describes himself as a “former cartoon schlepper,” has become a Hollywood mogul and a major political donor…

Read more: http://www.newyorker.com/#ixzz0mxwk8eYA
 

Middle East Peace

The False Religion of Mideast Peace. Aaron David Miller, Foreign Policy, April 2010, var. pages. "Like all religions, the peace process has developed a dogmatic creed, with immutable first principles. Over the last two decades, I wrote them hundreds of times to my bosses in the upper echelons of the State Department and the White House; they were a catechism we all could recite by heart. First, pursuit of a comprehensive peace was a core, if not the core, U.S. interest in the region, and achieving it offered the only sure way to protect U.S. interests; second, peace could be achieved, but only through a serious negotiating process based on trading land for peace; and third, only America could help the Arabs and Israelis bring that peace to fruition." And why Aaron David Miller is no longer a believer."  READ MORE

Both a Borrower and Lender Be: Can Islamic Microfinance Bring Peace to Palestine? Kenneth E. Barden, World Policy Journal,  Spring 2010, pp. 97–102. "Mahmod Ismail Oda is a farmer, raising a variety of leafy vegetables in a small greenhouse in the northern part of the West Bank outside of Jenin, some 25 kilometers from the border with Israel. The land here is rocky and hilly and a great amount of effort is required to turn this land to productive use. Two years ago, Oda needed money to obtain some plastic housing to protect his vegetables from the elements. Unfortunately, the $5,000 he needed was not an amount that commercial banks were particularly interested in servicing, nor did Oda possess the collateral typically required in conventional loan arrangements. Oda, a devout Muslim, is in his mid-40s and still full of energy. But, as the father of a young family, he feared being encumbered by a debt he could not readily repay. Oda found his answer in a new model of financing, one that blends micro-loans with respect for Islamic law, or shariah. In stepped Reef Finance, just one of a number of nascent institutions that may play a major role in bringing a level of prosperity, even peace, to the rural communities of the West Bank." READ MORE

Contrasting Explanations for Peace: Realism vs. Liberalism in Europe and the Middle East. Benjamin Miller, Contemporary Security Policy, April 2010, pp. 134-164. The fall of the Berlin Wall 20 years ago solidified the spread of peace on most of the European continent. This peace emerged first in West Europe in the aftermath of
World War Two, evolving into what I’ll call here ‘warm peace’. What are the
main causes of this peace and to what extent do they apply in other regions? There
is a realist–liberal debate on the sources of the European peace and thus potentially
also on their application into other regions. The realist–liberal distinction, however,
is insufficient. I distinguish here among four approaches to peace and security based
on a novel distinction not only between realism and liberalism, but also on an internal
division inside each camp between offensive and defensive approaches. Indeed,
besides the familiar distinction between offensive and defensive realism, there is
also an overlooked parallel distinction between offensive and defensive liberalism.
Thus, we get four distinctive approaches: defensive realism, offensive realism and
also defensive liberalism and offensive liberalism. This article focuses on this novel fourfold distinction and its application to regional security, particularly in two key regions: Europe and the Middle East. I argue that the combined effect of the realist mechanisms produced ‘cold peace’ in Europe, while the liberal strategies warmed the peace considerably, eventually producing a ‘high-level warm peace’. READ MORE

Afghanistan & Iraq

‘Phase IV’ Operations in the War on Terror: Comparing Iraq and Afghanistan. Anthony N. Celso, Orbis, Spring 2010, pp. 185-198. "This article identifies the obstacles and prospects of implementing President Obama's surge strategy in Afghanistan by examining four issues: (1) the origins and implementation of the Iraq surge policy; (2) U.S. counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan; (3) a comparative examination of Afghan and Iraqi tribal insurgent structures; and (4) suggestions for a counter insurgency policy more in sync with regional social and tribal structures." READ MORE
 
It Takes the Villages. Seth G. Jones, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2010, var. pages."Current efforts to stabilize Afghanistan are based on a misunderstanding of the country's culture and social structure. As three new books show, defeating the Taliban will require local, bottom-up efforts -- beginning with a deep understanding of tribal and subtribal politics." READ MORE

Imagining Iraq, Defining Its Future. Missy Ryan, World Policy Journal, Spring 2010, pp. 65–73. "Today, the legacy of the American adventure in Iraq is slowly coming into focus. As U.S. soldiers prepare to withdraw after a seven-year occupation, the new Iraqi state takes unsteady steps toward an uncertain future. At the heart of that assessment, which will shape America’s standing across the Middle East for years to come, is the nature and performance of the nation the United States leaves behind—its ability to contain a still-tenacious insurgency, the success of its elections, the brand of government it chooses, the role it allots to women and minorities. Even after parliamentary polls in March, when voters defied insurgent attacks to cast ballots, the dangers are many. Iraq has not yet settled major questions about the balance of power between central and regional authorities, how a newly empowered majority will treat minorities, and how to achieve national reconciliation. Still, in some respects, Iraq may present a more favorable portrait than anyone could have expected in 2006 and 2007." READ MORE

Small is Beautiful: The Counterterrorism Option in Afghanistan. Austin Long, Orbis, Spring 2010, pp. 199-214. "Strategy is matching means and ends. If the ends desired in Afghanistan are about al Qaeda, the counterterrorism option is the best fit in terms of means. It is sustainable, always crucial in prolonged conflict, as it limits the expenditure of U.S. blood and treasure. This article fills a gap in the existing strategy debate by detailing what a counterterrorism option would be in terms of force structure and operations." READ MORE

Financial Markets and the Economy

Bigger is Better. The Case for a Transatlantic Economic Union. Richard Rosecrance, Foreign Affairs, May/Jun2010, pp. 42-50. Smaller countries, such as Japan, West Germany, and the "Asian tigers," attained international prominence as they grew faster than giants such as the US and the Soviet Union. These smaller countries -- what the author has called "trading states" -- did not have expansionist territorial ambitions and did not try to project military power abroad. Small trading states failed because the assumptions on which they operated did not hold. In the aftermath of the crisis, the small trading states vowed never to put themselves in a similar position again, and so they increased their access to foreign exchange through exports. The need for a transatlantic economic union will become clearer should the US economic recovery begin to flag. At some point, US policymakers will recognize -- and find a way to convince the country at large -- that trade agreements with other nations are not a means of transferring US production overseas but rather part of a robust recovery strategy to gain greater markets abroad. READ MORE   

Climate Crisis, Credit Crisis: The Quest for Green Growth. Kemal Dervis, Abigail Jones, Karen Kornbluh, and Sarah Puritz, Brookings Institution, May 2010, var. pp.  As the global economy struggles to sustain its recovery from the deepest recession in sixty years, another challenge looms large: preventing the Earth from warming more than 3.6 °F, widely considered by climate experts as the acceptable level to reduce the risk of irreversible global damage resulting from climate change. To meet these challenges, we must look beyond our national borders, recognize that we face an uncertain future, and collaborate to ensure our collective well-being. Our success or failure will depend both on our timeliness and resolve—and will shape the fate of our planet for years to come. Although tentative signs of recovery from the global financial and economic crisis are gaining strength, policymakers around the world are still grappling with the effects of the crisis on the real economy. In the United States, unemployment is still historically high and credit is still constrained. The International Labor Organization predicts that employment levels in those countries with a high gross domestic product (GDP) per capita will not return to pre-crisis levels before 2013. And social protection programs are suffering as nations must find ways to cover budget shortfalls. READ MORE

Faulty Basel. Why More Diplomacy Won't Keep the Financial System Safe. Marc Levinson, Foreign Affairs, May/Jun2010, var. pp.  The global financial crisis that began in 2007 marked the failure of an ambitious experiment in financial diplomacy. Since the 1970s, officials from the world's leading economies have worked together to regulate financial institutions with the aim of making the international financial system safer. Inevitably, painful experience has fueled a drive to get financial regulation right. A bevy of obscure multilateral organizations, from the Bank for International Settlements to the International Accounting Standards Board, are now advancing proposals intended to prevent crises in the future. Over time, the Basel Committee acquired numerous siblings. The International Organization of Securities Commissions, established in 1983, brought together the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and their foreign counterparts to coordinate securities and futures regulation. Around the world, regulators adhering to the Basel II rules required banks to hold less capital against home mortgages than against loans to big companies, which were deemed riskier. READ MORE

Foreign Policy/NATO

Obama's Foreign Policy. Henry R Nau. Policy Review, Apr/May 2010, pp. American foreign policy swings like a pendulum. Under President George W. Bush, U.S. foreign policy promoted a democracy agenda, used force readily to buttress and at times even displace diplomacy, championed free markets, and risked if not relished unilateralism. Under President Barrack Obama, U.S. foreign policy has swung decisively in the opposite direction. Now, U.S. security interests matter more than democracy, force is a last resort, substantial regulations are needed to end the booms and busts of global capitalism, and multilateralism is the sine qua non of U.S. diplomacy.  After more than a year, it is not too early to evaluate the pendulum swings in American foreign policy and ask whether or not Obama is likely to stop the pendulum this time around. Successful American presidents have stopped the pendulum to achieve novel and lasting contributions to American security and ideals. READ MORE

The Brussels Wall. William Drozdiak. Foreign Affairs, May/Jun 2010. var. pp.  These days, there is a great deal of talk about the dawn of an Asian century -- hastened by the rise of China and India. But the West is not doomed to decline as a center of power and influence. A relatively simple strategic fix could reinvigorate the historic bonds between Europe and North America and reestablish the West's dominance: it is time to bring together the West's principal institutions, the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). A revitalized Atlantic alliance is by far the most effective way for the US and Europe to shore up their global influence in the face of emerging Asian powers. Anybody who spends time in Brussels comes away mystified by the lack of dialogue between the West's two most important multinational organizations, even though they have been based in the same city for decades. A strong connection between the EU and NATO would serve Western security interests on every major issue. READ MORE

NATO's Final Frontier. Charles A Kupchan. Foreign Affairs. May/Jun 2010. var. pp. At NATO's 2010 summit, planned for November, the alliance's members intend to adopt a new "strategic concept" to guide its evolution. NATO's relationship with Russia is at the top of the agenda. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US and its NATO allies have constructed a post-Cold War order that effectively shuts Russia out. Nonetheless, the West is making a historic mistake in treating Russia as a strategic pariah. As made clear by the settlements after the Napoleonic Wars and World War II -- in contrast to the one that followed World War I -- including former adversaries in a postwar order is critical to the consolidation of great-power peace. Anchoring Russia in an enlarged Euro-Atlantic order, therefore, should be an urgent priority for NATO today. A vision for bringing Russia into the Euro-Atlantic space is readily within reach: Russia should become a member of NATO. Russian leaders will also have to start laying the groundwork for a new domestic discourse about NATO. READ MORE

Whither State? The Institutional Politics of American Nation-Building Policy. Robert Daniel Wallace, Contemporary Security Policy, April 2010, pp. 114-133. Ongoing large-scale nation-building operations in Afghanistan and Iraq are often
criticized as an inappropriate use of America’s armed forces which are traditionally
dedicated to maintaining the capability ‘to fight and win the nation’s wars’. Recent
studies, and countless news and academic articles, continue to identify problems
with the United States’ approach to nation-building tasks, many associated with
the mismatch between current strategic capabilities and foreign policy goals.1
RAND’s Nora Bensahel summarizes current thought by observing, ‘Most policy
analysts believe improved [civilian] capacity is needed . . . many reports have been
written on stabilization and reconstruction, and all agree on the need for increased
civilian capacity and better interagency coordination’. READ MORE

European Issues

A Turning Point for Europe's East. Bruce P. Jackson , Policy Review, April/May 2010, pp. 49-61. In the early months of the second decade of the 21st century, that grey area of the Euro-Atlantic where Eastern Europe fades into the post-Soviet world seems much the same as it has been since the collapse of the Soviet Empire in 1991. Belarus remains a dictatorship. Tbilisi anticipates war with Russia. The ever unstable Kiev continues to flirt with national bankruptcy. Moscow grumbles on about its diminished status and searches the horizon for signs of nato’s encroachment. And forgotten Moldova remains forgotten. One could be forgiven for thinking that nothing ever really changes in this part of the world. But one would be wrong. Lost in the latest flurry of reporting on the recent presidential election in Ukraine is the larger story that the European Union has begun at long last to build an eastern policy on behalf of both Europe and the United States. Somehow overlooked in the latest controversies over the construction of a pipeline or the self-interested sale of an aircraft carrier has been the unprecedented realignment of trade and multilateral institutions in relations between Europe and the former Soviet Union. And this has changed everything. READ MORE

The EU and the Welfare State are Compatible: Finnish Social Democrats and European Integration. Tapio Raunio, Government and Opposition, 2010, pp. 187-207. This article examines how the Finnish Social Democratic Party has adapted to European integration. The analysis illustrates that the Social Democrats have successfully argued to their electorate that the objectives of integration are compatible with core social democratic values. Considering that Finland was hit by a severe recession in the early 1990s, discourse about economic integration and monetary stability facilitating the economic growth that is essential for job creation and the survival of domestic welfare state policies sounded appealing to SDP voters. Determined party leadership, support from trade unions and the lack of a credible threat from the other leftist parties have also contributed to the relatively smooth adaptation to Europe. However, recent internal debates about the direction of party ideology and poor electoral performances – notably in the European Parliament elections – indicate that not all sections within the party are in favour of the current ideological choices. READ MORE

U.S. Society & Politics

Gridlock in Washington: Is Congress too polarized to act? Marcia Clemmitt, The CQ Researcher, April 30, 2010, pp. 385-408. "Historic health-care legislation was enacted this spring, but the slow crawl of the law through the Senate suggests to many observers that Washington is in a state of gridlock — nearly unable to make new policy. Some political scientists blame the increasingly fierce competition for power between the ideologically rigid Democratic and Republican parties, which has risen to levels not seen since the Civil War. Other analysts blame the Senate's cloture rule, which requires a 60-vote supermajority to end a filibuster and proceed to voting. The rule gives undue, perhaps even unconstitutional, power to the minority, its critics argue. But other scholars maintain that the eventual passage of the health-care law is proof that Washington is not paralyzed. Indeed, they say a more serious problem is widespread voter misunderstanding of the importance the U.S. Constitution places on lengthy deliberation of issues before new laws are made." READ MORE

Growing America: Demographics and Destiny.  Joel Kotkin, Governing, May 2010, var. pp. Can a country with a population that's expected to expand dramatically over the next 40 years be in decline? Visionary and author Joel Kotkin doesn't think so. In his new book, The Next Hundred Million, Kotkin sees a more dynamic, ethnically diverse country, brimming with technological and cultural innovation. To accommodate this expansion, America will continue to grow in urban areas, but also on the edges, in suburban and exurban towns, especially in our heartland where undeveloped land is still abundant. In this essay, Kotkin looks at how this new growth and dynamism will impact our country at the state and local level in particular. READ MORE

Health Care: Winning the Perception Game. Marilyn Werber Serafini and Bara Vaida, National Journal, April 24, 2010, Ninety-nine percent of the changes in the landmark health care reform act won't come before 2014. It's the 1 percent happening now, though, that may matter most to the law's success.  By the end of September, the Health and Human Services Department must implement regulations requiring health plans to insure some people who have serious health problems. Insurers must accept children even if they have pre-existing medical conditions, for example, and they may not impose lifetime limits on policyholders' benefits. The burden of these popular changes will fall squarely on insurers -- and on policyholders, who will probably face somewhat higher premiums. "Any additional benefit has additional costs," said Karen Ignagni, president of America's Health Insurance Plans. "So there's no question of 'if' here." Premiums will go up. The question is whether the increases will be tied to the reform act -- both in reality and in public perception. READ MORE

Immigration and Multiculturalism

Trajectories of Multiculturalism in Germany, the Netherlands and Canada: In Search of Common Patterns. Elke Winter, Government and Opposition, March 2010, pp. 166-186. "In the mid-1990s, Canadian scholarship introduced an important distinction between historically incorporated national minorities and ethnic groups emerging from recent immigration. While the former may be accommodated through federal or multinational arrangements, multiculturalism has come to describe a normative framework of immigrant integration. (...) Tracing the trajectories of multiculturalism in three different countries, the article aims to identify common patterns of how changing relations between traditionally incorporated groups affect public perceptions of and state responses to more recent immigration-induced diversity. More specifically, it asks the following question: to what extent does the absence (in Germany), discontinuation (in the Netherlands) and exacerbation (in Canada) of claims on ethnocultural grounds by traditionally incorporated groups influence the willingness of the national majority/ies to grant multicultural rights to immigrants?" READ MORE

The Role of Cultural Inertia in Reactions to Immigration on the U.S./Mexico Border
Michael A. Zárate and Moira P. Shaw, Journal of Social Issues, March 2010, pp. 45-57. "Assimilation and multiculturalism are often contrasted as opposite interethnic ideologies about cultural integration. Here, we address models of assimilation and multiculturalism and how group identity influences attitudes toward immigrants. One overlooked issue concerns the dynamic processes involved in integration. It is proposed that cultural inertia, defined as the desire to avoid cultural change, or conversely, to continue change once it is already occurring, can account for a number of seemingly discrepant findings. In particular, cultural inertia predicts that majority groups should prefer assimilation type models, whereas minority groups should prefer multicultural models. Resistance to change is the mediating process. Cultural inertia is used as a model to understand discrepant attitudes toward assimilation and multiculturalism across different groups." READ MORE

Attitudes toward Highly Skilled and Low-skilled Immigration: Evidence from a Survey Experiment. Jens Hainmueller, Michael J. Hiscox, The American Political Science Review, Feb. 2010, pp. 61-84. "Past research has emphasized two critical economic concerns that appear to generate anti-immigrant sentiment among native citizens: concerns about labor market competition and concerns about the fiscal burden on public services. We provide direct tests of both models of attitude formation using an original survey experiment embedded in a nationwide U.S. survey. The labor market competition model predicts that natives will be most opposed to immigrants who have skill levels similar to their own. We find instead that both low-skilled and highly skilled natives strongly prefer highly skilled immigrants over low-skilled immigrants, and this preference is not decreasing in natives' skill levels. The fiscal burden model anticipates that rich natives oppose low-skilled immigration more than poor natives, and that this gap is larger in states with greater fiscal exposure (in terms of immigrant access to public services). We find instead that rich and poor natives are equally opposed to low-skilled immigration in general. In states with high fiscal exposure, poor (rich) natives are more (less) opposed to low-skilled immigration than they are elsewhere. This indicates that concerns among poor natives about constraints on welfare benefits as a result of immigration are more relevant than concerns among the rich about increased taxes."  READ MORE

Politicized Places: Explaining Where and When Immigrants Provoke Local Opposition. Daniel J. Hopkins, American Political Science Review, February 2010, pp 40-60. "In ethnic and racial terms, America is growing rapidly more diverse. Yet attempts to extend racial threat hypotheses to today's immigrants have generated inconsistent results. This article develops the politicized places hypothesis, an alternative that focuses on how national and local conditions interact to construe immigrants as threatening. Hostile political reactions to neighboring immigrants are most likely when communities undergo sudden influxes of immigrants and when salient national rhetoric reinforces the threat." READ MORE