U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-China Relations: Is a future confrontation looming? Roland Flamini, The CQ Researcher, May 7, 2010, pp. 409-432. "Disputes that have bedeviled relations between the United States and China for decades flared up again following President Obama's decision to sell weapons to Taiwan and receive Tibet's revered Dalai Lama. From the U.S. perspective, China's refusal to raise the value of its currency is undermining America's — and Europe's — economic recovery. Beijing also rebuffed Obama's proposal of 'a partnership on the big global issues of our time.' In addition, the Chinese insist on tackling their pollution problems in their own way, and have been reluctant to support U.S. diplomatic efforts to impose tough sanctions on nuclear-minded Iran. With the central bank of China holding more than $800 billion of the U.S. national debt in the form of Treasury notes, and their economy speeding along at a 9 percent growth rate, the Chinese are in no mood to be accommodating." READ MORE

The Geography of Chinese Power. Robert D. Kaplan, Foreign Affairs, May-June 2010, var. pages. "Thanks to the country’s favorable location on the map, China's influence is expanding on land and at sea, from Central Asia to the South China Sea and from the Russian Far East to the Indian Ocean." READ MORE

China’s Perspective on a Nuclear-Free World. Hui Zhang, The Washington Quarterly, April 2010, pp. 139-155. "Beijing believes that all nuclear states should adopt a no-first-use policy and redefine the role of nuclear weapons in their national security doctrines. Although China stands ready to support the nuclear-free agenda, it is up to the two countries with the overwhelming number of the world’s warheads to take the lead."  READ MORE

Think Again: China Military. Drew Thompson, Foreign Policy, Mar/Apr 2010, pp. 86-90. "After two decades of massive military spending to modernize its armed forces, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, China increasingly has the ability to challenge the US in its region, if not yet outside it. But the ability to project force tells people very little about China's willingness to use it. Certainly, China has made moves over the last few years that have stoked the China-is-a-dangerous-threat crowd in Washington. In May 2008, satellite imagery revealed that China had constructed a massive subterranean naval base on the southern island of Hainan, presumably a staging point to launch naval operations into the Pacific. But it's probably too soon for Americans to panic. Many experts who've looked closely at the matter agree that China today simply does not have the military capability to challenge the US in the Pacific. Arguably, the more significant figure for comparison is defense spending. Here the People's Liberation Army lags far behind the Pentagon." READ MORE

The United States and Asia in 2009: Public Diplomacy and Strategic Continuity. François Godement, Asian Survey, Jan/Feb 2010, pp. 8-24. "In crafting an Asia policy during the first year of his presidency, Obama has faced the dilemma of continuing much of his predecessor’s policies while answering public expectations for change. A military surge in Afghanistan after a long debate, an attempt to enhance strategic cooperation with China, a disappointing result for climate change policies, a better disposition toward regional organizations, and a growing concern with the course of Japan’s alliance policy have been the main threads of a deeply pragmatic approach." READ MORE

Russia

Generational Change and the Future of U.S.-Russian Relations. Jeffrey Mankoff. Journal of International Affairs, Spring 2010, pp. 1-17.  The Cold War has now been over for nearly two decades. In that time, a whole generation has grown up, both in the US and Russia, with no memory of the conflict that defined world politics for half a century. For much of the foreign policy elite in both Washington and Moscow, the Cold War remains the prism through which US-Russian relations are filtered, largely because that elite gained its reputation and experience in an era when the entire panoply of foreign policy was based on the East and West struggle. It is clear that the younger generation in both Russia and the US view their bilateral relationship through a vastly different prism than the one employed by their elders. Despite their increasing openness to globalization and ambition to improve their own standard of living, Russia's youth are generally unsympathetic to the West and increasingly beholden to a narrow conception of Russian nationalism. READ MORE

Russia, Ukraine, and Central Europe: The Return of Geopolitics. F Stephen Larrabee, Journal of International Affairs. Spring 2010, pp. 33-53.  Nov 9, 2009, marked the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, effectively marking the end of the Cold War. The collapse of the Berlin Wall, however, unleashed an incomplete process of integration and political transformation and left a band of states on Russia's Western periphery without a clear political future or clear foreign policy attachment. This band of states includes Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and Belarus. This article focuses on the changing security dynamics in Central Europe and the Western periphery of the post-Soviet space. The first section examines Russia's resurgence and the challenges it poses. The second section focuses on Ukraine's transition, while the third section discusses the impact of Russia's resurgence on Central and Eastern Europe. The fourth section examines the increasing cooperation between Russia and Germany. The fifth section analyzes the changing context of NATO enlargement. The final section discusses the implications of these trends for US policy. READ MORE

Europe

The EU as a Global Actor: Grand Strategy for a Global Grand Bargain? Jolyon Howorth, Journal of Common Market Studies, June 2010,  pp 455-474. Like it or not, the European Union, in the wake of Lisbon, has become an international actor. It now faces two major external challenges. The first is to develop a strategic vision for a potentially tumultuous emerging multi-polar world. The European Council’s December 2008 ‘Report on the Implementation of the European Security Strategy’ recognized that, over the last five years, the threats facing the EU had become ‘increasingly complex’, that ‘we must be ready to shape events [by] becoming more strategic in our thinking’. The second challenge is to help nudge the other major actors towards a multilateral global grand bargain. Such a bargain will be the necessary outcome of the transition from a US-dominated post-1945 liberal world order, towards a new 21st-century order accommodating the rising powers and sensitive to the needs of the global south. Without such a comprehensive and co-operative bargain, the emerging multi-polar world will be rife with tensions and highly conflict-prone. READ MORE

War and Consequences

Foreign Aid Versus Military Intervention in the War on Terror. Jean-Paul Azam & Véronique Thelen, Journal of Conflict Resolution, April 2010, Pages 237-261. "This article presents a theoretical framework and some empirical results showing that the level of foreign aid received reduces the supply of terrorist attacks from recipient countries, while U.S. military interventions are liable to increase this supply. Due account is taken of endogeneity problems in producing these results. They suggest that Western democracies, which are the main targets of terrorist attacks, should invest more funds in foreign aid, with a special emphasis on supporting education, and use military interventions more sparingly." READ MORE

Caring for Veterans: Does the VA adequately serve wounded vets?  Peter Kate, The CQ Researcher, April 23, 2010, var. pages. "Battle-scarred veterans often spend more time waiting for decisions from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) on their disability claims than they spent at war. At least 500,000 veterans have waited an average of six months for a decision on a disability claim and another 200,000 have waited an average of five years for a decision on an appeal. New VA Secretary Eric Shinseki — himself a disabled Vietnam vet — vows to unblock the huge claims backlog, but it may take until 2015. That's partly because the VA has expanded the number of compensation-worthy illnesses from the Vietnam War. Veterans' organizations laud Shinseki but disagree over how deeply VA changes should run. Meanwhile, lawmakers in Congress are close to passing legislation to compensate relatives and friends caring for veterans with catastrophic, lifelong disabilities such as traumatic brain injuries arising from improvised explosive devices — the devastating homemade bombs that are the hallmark of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan." READ MORE

The Myth of a Kinder, Gentler War. Michael A. Cohen, World Policy Journal, Spring 2010, pp. 75–86. "Shortly after he assumed command of all US and NATO troops in Afghanistan, Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal provided his soldiers with operational guidance for fighting insurgent Taliban forces. McChrystal's words directly reflect the Pentagon's new model of US warfare and inform the philosophy behind the current US military escalation in Afghanistan: 'The ongoing insurgency must be met with a counterinsurgency campaign adapted to the unique conditions in each area that: protects the Afghan people, allowing them to choose a future they can be proud of, provides a secure environment allowing good government and economic development to undercut the causes and advocates of insurgency.' Here, Cohen elaborates the myth of this aimed kinder and gentle war for the Taliban forces." READ MORE

Helping Others Defend Themselves. Robert M. Gates, Foreign Affairs, May-June 2010, var. pages. "In coming years, the greatest threats to the United States are likely to emanate from states that cannot adequately govern themselves or secure their own territory. The U.S. government must improve its ability to help its partners defend themselves or, if necessary, fight alongside U.S. troops." READ MORE

A Flawed and Dangerous U.S. Missile Defense Plan. George N. Lewis and Theodore A. Postol, Arms Control Today, May 2010, var. pages.  "On September 17, 2009, the Obama administration announced that it would shelve the Bush administration’s European missile defense system and replace it with an entirely new missile defense architecture. Less than five months later, in February, the Obama administration produced an extensive elaboration of the September decision in a document called the Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report. The report asserts that ballistic missile defense technologies have already produced a reliable and robust defense of the United States against limited intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) attacks. In fact, as this article will show, the most recent ballistic missile defense flight-test data released by the Department of Defense and the most recent failed test of the ground-based missile defense system in January show quite the opposite." READ MORE

Financial Markets and the Economy

A Bretton Woods moment? The 2007–2008 crisis and the future of global finance. Eric Helleiner, International Affairs, May 2010, pp 619-636.  The 2007–2008 global financial crisis encouraged speculation about the prospects for a 'Bretton Woods moment' in which the global financial system would be radically redesigned. Many of those hoping for this outcome have since become disillusioned with the limited nature of the international financial reform agenda. But the success and innovation of the Bretton Woods conference was made possible by unique political conditions that are not present today, notably concentrated power in the state system; a transnational expert consensus; and wartime conditions. Moreover, a close reading of history reveals that the Bretton Woods system did not emerge from a single moment but rather from a much more extended historical process. If a new international financial system is being born today, it will be a slower and more incremental development process that can be divided into four phases: a legitimacy crisis; an interregnum; a constitutive phase; and an implementation phase. Viewed from this perspective, post-crisis developments look more significant. The crisis of 2007–2008 has already intensified twin legitimacy crises relating to international financial policy and leadership. It has also generated an international reform initiative that has been unusual for its speed and internationally coordinated nature. Many of the details of this reform initiative remain unresolved and its content and breadth are hotly contested in various ways. We thus find ourselves in more of an interregnum than a constitutive phase. It remains unclear how quickly, if at all, the latter might emerge and in what form. READ MORE

Who is in control of the international monetary system? Paola Subacchi, International Affairs, May 2010, pp. 665–680. Although the financial and economic crisis did not directly hit the international monetary system, it has lead to the rethinking of the overall architecture that underpins the world economy. Can the current system of floating currency blocs with dollar-based trade and reserves withstand the strains of the global adjustment ahead? It is time to consider alternatives. This article argues that the existing system needs to evolve into a multicurrency one in which a number of international currencies, ideally representing the main trading areas, have the function of storing value and providing the unit of measure. A multicurrency system would respond more flexibly to the demand for liquidity and would provide a way to diversify the accumulation of reserve assets. It is also more appropriate for the increasingly multipolar world economy. The article discusses how in today's larger and more integrated world economy the dependence on the dollar as the basis of both trade flows and financial reserves has become excessive, creating some fundamental imbalances. READ MORE

Energy/Climate Change

Russia and Europe's Mutual Energy Dependence. Christophe-Alexandre Paillard. Journal of International Affairs. Spring 2010. pp. 65-85.  In the field of energy, Europe will be confronted with various risks in the next twenty years. Most notably, there is no clear alternative to fossil energy on a large scale with the possible exception of nuclear energy; yet few countries are able to pay for the large investment required by a nuclear industry. The need to ensure greater energy security and better regulation of energy supplies will turn energy policy into a much more politicized issue. Energy, already an important security concern, will continue to shape future military and political relations, especially if there is no other option other than oil and gas to satiate growing demand. To understand the tricky energy relationship between Europe and Russia, one must first understand Gazprom, the three main east-west gas pipeline projects currently underway, and the Russian oil and gas industries. Whatever the Russian attitude is, its strategy will influence European energy policies on oil and gas. READ MORE

The Global Expansion of Russia's Energy Giants. Nina Poussenkova. Journal of International Affairs. Spring 2010. Vol. 63, Iss. 2; p. 103-125. In any economy, oil and gas companies are tightly linked with the government. In petro-states such as Russia, they are so closely connected that they are sometimes indistinguishable. This symbiotic relationship is particularly strong in the global expansion of Russian energy corporations such as Gazprom, LUKOIL and Rosneft, which is guided by a tangled web of commercial and political motives. Under socialism, when the petroleum resources of the country seemed limitless, geopolitical considerations drove Soviet energy expansion abroad. Oil exports are relatively flexible in contrast to gas exports, where producers and consumers are inextricably linked by a pipeline which can serve as a geopolitical tool. Though in the 2000s LUKOIL ceded its status as the Russian oil industry flagship to Rosneft, it continued to lead in international upstream expansion. During the 2000s, with the growing nationalization of the energy sector and attempts by Russia's leadership to reestablish its former global might via its control over energy resources, political aspirations have been gaining importance. READ MORE

Democracy, Human Rights and Foreign Aid

The Ballot and the Badge: Democratic Policing. Michael D. Wiatrowski and Jack A. Goldstone, Journal of Democracy, April 2010, pp. 79-92. "In emerging democracies and postconflict countries, improved policing is almost always urgently required. Yet international-assistance efforts in this area pay almost no attention to the crucial need to ensure that the new-model police are not only effective, but democracy-friendly." READ MORE

More Aid Is Not the Answer. Jonathan Glennie, Current History, May 2010, pp. 205-209. “Most analysts on the continent do not share donor nations’ optimism that a big push in aid will make a big difference in the lives of poor Africans.” READ MORE

Ending Sexual Violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Gaëlle Breton-Le Goff, The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Winter 2010, pp. 13-40. "Over the last fifteen years, the Great Lakes Region has been the theater of numerous bloody conflicts. Sexual violence, specifically, has occurred in many countries, particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where such violence has been so pervasive that it is hardly possible to estimate its extent." READ MORE

The Strategic Substitution of United States Foreign Aid. Christopher J. Fariss, Foreign Policy Analysis, April 2010 pp. 107-131. The author presents "a foreign policy decision-making theory that accounts for why US food aid is used strategically when other more powerful economic aid tools are at the disposal of policymakers. He focuses his analysis on US food aid because this aid program provides an excellent case with which to test for the existence of foreign policy substitution. Substitution is an important assumption of many foreign policy theories yet proves to be an allusive empirical phenomenon to observe. Central to this analysis is the identification of legal mechanisms such as the 'needy people' provision in the US foreign aid legislation that legally restrict certain types of aid; this mechanism, however, does allow for the allocation of certain types of foreign aid, such as food aid, to human rights abusing regimes." READ MORE

And Justice for All. Gary Haugen, Victor Boutros, Foreign Affairs, May/Jun 2010. var. pp. For a poor person in the developing world, the struggle for human rights is not an abstract fight over political freedoms or over the prosecution of large-scale war crimes but a matter of daily survival. Efforts by the modern human rights movement over the last 60 years have contributed to the criminalization of such abuses in nearly every country. Without functioning public justice systems to deliver the protections of the law to the poor, the legal reforms of the modern human rights movement rarely improve the lives of those who need them most. In a June 2008 report, the United Nations estimated that four billion people live outside the protection of the rule of law. Few, if any, international human rights or development organizations focus on building public justice systems that work for the poor. The modern human rights movement must enter into a new era, shifting its focus from legal reform to law enforcement. READ MORE  

Immigration

Census Controversy. Should undocumented immigrants be counted? By Thomas J. Billitteri. CQ Researcher, May 14, 2010, pp. 433-456.  "Now under way, the 2010 census has sparked bitter partisanship. Some conservative Republicans, for example, have criticized the census as an unconstitutional intrusion on privacy; others warn that census participation is important for maintaining GOP power, since the count is used to apportion congressional seats and allocate federal money to cities and states. Liberal Democrats have been more supportive of census procedures, which for the first time will count same-sex couples. To raise response rates, the Census Bureau sent every household the same brief 10-question form and dropped use of the “long form” — a lengthy questionnaire seeking data on housing, transportation, education and income. The long form has been replaced by a separate, ongoing monthly survey that will provide timelier data, but from a smaller sample of households. Researchers generally hail the change but say it will cause some problems, at least initially." READ MORE

Growing Diversity among America's Children and Youth: Spatial and Temporal Dimensions. Kenneth M. Johnson and Daniel T. Lichter, Population and Development Review, March 2010,  pp. 151-176. "This study documents the changing racial and ethnic mix of America's children. Specifically, we focus on the unusually rapid shifts in the composition and changing spatial distribution of America's young people between 2000 and 2008. Minorities grew to 43 percent of all children and youth, up from 38.5 percent only eight years earlier. In 1990, this figure stood at 33 percent. Among 0–4-year-olds, 47 percent of all children were minority in 2008. Changes in racial and ethnic composition are driven by two powerful demographic forces. The first is the rapid increase since 2000 in the number of minority children—with Hispanics accounting for 80 percent of the growth. The second is the absolute decline in the number of non-Hispanic white children and youth. The growth of minority children and racial diversity is distributed unevenly over geographical space. Over 500 (or roughly 1 in 6) counties now have majority-minority youth populations. Broad geographic areas of America nevertheless remain mono-racial, where only small shares of minorities live." READ MORE

See No Spanish? Language, Local Context, and Attitudes toward Immigration. Daniel J. Hopkins, Van C. Tran and Abigail Fisher Williamson, May 12, 2010, var. pages. "Certain explanations of Americans’ immigration attitudes emphasize threats to national identity and culture. But we do not know the specific sources of cultural threat, and we do not know whether it operates locally. In case studies of new immigrant destinations, native-born residents commonly voice concerns about the prevalence of Spanish, suggesting that foreign languages might be one such source of threat.. A previous version with additional experimental results on explicit immigration appeals is available here." READ MORE