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Topics in this Issue of
July 1, 2010

 

 

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President Barack Obama and President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia ride together for lunch at Ray's Hell Burger in Arlington, Va., June 24, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)
President Barack Obama and President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia ride together for lunch at Ray's Hell Burger in Arlington, Va., June 24, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)




Russia

Prisoners of the Caucasus. Charles King and Rajan Menon, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2010, var. pages. "A pernicious mix of heavy-handed rule, corrupt governance, high unemployment, and militant Islam has reignited the Russian North Caucasus. Today, it is not only the old conflict zone of Chechnya but also its neighboring republics that are bordering on open civil war." READ MORE

The Resurgence of Russian Interests in Central Asia. Scott G Frickenstein, Air & Space Power Journal, Spring 2010, 67-74. "In order to analyze Russia's policy toward Central Asia effectively, one must first understand the Soviet and Russian historical legacy in the region. Following the collapse of the USSR, Russia was initially indifferentborderline irritated, in fact- toward Central Asia. Not surprisingly, the region's fledgling nations looked for help elsewhere as they ventured out of the Soviet nest. Russia soon became aware that it had lost a great deal of influence in the region, but in the latter half of Près. Boris Yeltsin's tenure, it regained very little clout since Central Asians perceived a disconnect between Russia's 'walk' and 'talk.' The era of Yeltsin's successor, Vladimir Putin, witnessed both enhanced focus and rigorous reassertion of Russian authority in the region. For each of these three periods, this article analyzes the security, economic, and political aspects of Russian foreign policy toward Central Asia and concisely assesses the results of Russian efforts. Before concluding, it discusses two important developments during Dmitry Medvedev's presidency, a period of assertive Russian foreign policy that is still unfolding." READ MORE

Non proliferation

Friends Don't Let Friends Proliferate. Scott Helfstein, Political Science Quarterly, Summer 2010, pp. 281-308. "Scott Helfstein examines the efficacy of economic sanctions as a tool to counter nuclear proliferation. He argues that contrary to conventional wisdom, international cooperation is not a key determinant in sanction success. Instead, empirical evidence shows that sanctions have been effective at altering nuclear policies only when the sanction sender and target have had friendly relations." READ MORE

NATO Experts Hedge on Nuclear Posture. Oliver Meier, Arms Control Today, June 2010, pp. 36-38. "A report delivered by a group made up largely of diplomats and former officials on May 17 to NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen does not give clear guidance on whether U.S. nuclear weapons deployed in Europe should be withdrawn, saying that 'the Alliance should be prepared for in-depth consultations on the future role of nuclear weapons in its deterrence strategy.' The group also recommends that NATO adopt the new negative security assurances contained in the recent U.S. Nuclear Posture Review Report (see ACT, May 2010), saying that "NATO should endorse a policy of not using or threatening to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states that are party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and in compliance with their nuclear non-proliferation obligations." READ MORE

Stopping Proliferation Before It Starts. Gregory L. Schulte, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2010, var. pages. "It is probably too late to convince North Korea and Iran to dismantle their nuclear programs. Rather than fixating on the proliferation they are unable to prevent, concerned countries should pay more attention to preventing proliferation to states that have not yet decided to build nuclear weapons." READ MORE

The North Korea Nuclear Problem: Sailing into Uncharted Waters. Evans Revere, American Foreign Policy Interests, May 2010, pp. 183 - 190. "A chilling assessment of the choices facing North Korea (and, by extension, the United States and its allies and partners) if it continues to defy the international community by insisting that it will keep its nuclear weapons." READ MORE

AfPak

Defining Success in Afghanistan. Stephen Biddle, Fotini Christia, and J Alexander Thier, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2010, var. pages. "Since 2001, the West has tried to build a strong centralized government in Afghanistan. But such an approach fits poorly with the country's history and political culture. The most realistic and acceptable alternative models of governance are decentralized democracy and a system of internal mixed sovereignty." READ MORE

China’s Caution on Afghanistan–Pakistan. Andrew Small, The Washington Quarterly, July 2010, pp. 81-97. "The ongoing crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan looks like a prime candidate for closer cooperation between the United States and China. There are various broadly shared interests in combating terrorism, containing rising extremism, and supporting the stability of both states. With its extensive influence in Pakistan and substantial economic capacity, Beijing has important assets to bring to the table. In practice, however, efforts to achieve convergence have proved frustrating. Differences run deep over how to address the extremist threat and the broader geopolitics of the region. And as is true of its foreign policy elsewhere, China pursues a relatively narrow conception of its interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan, rather than supporting a more widely shared set of goals." READ MORE

Afghanistan and Pakistan: Gaining a Grip, Gareth Price, The World Today, July 2010, var. pages. "All eyes are on Afghanistan. The American troop build-up continues, while the British look forward to leaving. Across the border in Pakistan, a convoy supplying those soldiers is torched close to the capital. Security there is looking increasingly unsteady too; various Taliban groups are gaining a grip. Time to keep an eye on Pakistan as well." READ MORE

Managing the Commons

From Global Village to Virtual Battlespace: The Colonizing of the Internet and the Extension of Realpolitik. Mary McEvoy Manjikian, International Studies Quarterly, June 2010, pp. 381-401. "From the earliest years of the Internet's creation, cyberspace has been distinguished from other types of political space because of three unique qualities: (i) its ability to mobilize users, particularly 'outsiders' including those who have not been easily included in political systems using conventional means; (ii) its ability to quickly provide large quantities of information of uncertain or unregulated quality; and (iii) its ability to shrink distances between users, in some sense rendering conventional physical geography irrelevant. This paper presents three lenses for interpreting the significance of these developments: utopian, liberal, and realist. Evolving doctrines of cyberwarfare as put forth by China, Russia, and the United States in particular stress the ways in which cyberspace presents a unique security threat which may present greater advantages to nonstate actors engaged in unconventional warfare. Differing economic, political, and security policies derive from each lens." READ MORE

Promoting Security in Common Domains. Shawn Brimley, The Washington Quarterly, July 2010, pp. 119-132. "The United States is at the beginning of a critical and lasting national security imperative—to prepare U.S. institutions and the American people for a set of cross-domain challenges in sea, air, space, and cyberspace that demand new thinking and innovative approaches." READ MORE

Sanctions

China vs. the Western Campaign for Iran Sanctions. Willem van Kemenade, The Washington Quarterly, July 2010. pp. 99-114.  The EU, Israel, and United States have been conducting an intensive campaign of diplomatic skirmishes with Brazil, China, Turkey, and others over imposing sanctions on Iran to stop it from moving from enriching uranium to building nuclear weapons. The sanctions needed to be ‘‘crippling’’ according to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, ‘‘massive’’ according to
President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, and ‘‘biting’’ according to Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel.1 Yet, an operational consensus had not been
obtained by May 2010. Some in the United States, particularly within Congress,
appear willing to be indiscriminate in hitting not only the core of the Iranian
regime but also the Iranian people, while Israel is defiantly planning a
potentially catastrophic military attack on Iran’s nuclear sites even without
the consent of the United States.2 On the other hand, Europeans want to be
more circumspect and focus on targeting the hard core of Iran’s regime rather
than its public. READ MORE

Diplomacy Derailed: The Consequences of Diplomatic Sanctions. Tara Maller, The Washington Quarterly, July 2010, pp. 61-79. The U.S. government has recently begun to emphasize the need for greater engagement with problem states. Proponents of this approach argue that diplomacy is necessary, even with these regimes. Critics, however, maintain that engagement with these regimes is tantamount to appeasement and signals acceptance of behavior that ought to be condemned. In their view, there is little
to be gained by talking to these states. Thus, diplomatic sanctions or sanctions
characterized by political disengagement are seen as a low-cost means of
isolating and delegitimizing regimes. Diplomatic sanctions, however, entail a number of often overlooked consequences for the United States. The potential costs of diplomatic
sanctions include not only a substantial loss of information and intelligence
on the target state, but also a reduction in communication capacity and a
diminished ability to influence the target state. Ironically, diplomatic sanctions
may even undermine the effectiveness of other coercive policy tools, such as
economic sanctions. These adverse effects ought to cause policymakers to
reassess the value of diplomatic isolation as a tool of foreign policy and recognize
the inherent value of diplomatic engagement. READ MORE

EU Issues

EU Counterterrorism Strategy: Value Added or Chimera? Rik Coolsaet, International Affairs, June 2010, pp. 857-873. Europe did not wake up to terrorism on 9/11. Terrorism is solidly entrenched in Europe’s past. Throughout its history, many of its member states have experienced a wide variety of terrorism—left-wing, right-wing, separatist, social and
religious, domestic as well as international. The main characteristic of the counterterrorism approach in Europe has been to consider terrorism a crime, to be tackled through criminal law. Counterterrorism has long been confined within national
borders, aside from sporadic ad hoc cooperation in specific cross-border dossiers.
In the early 1970s, terrorism slowly entered the realm of the European
integration process.1 The first organized platform for European counterterrorist
cooperation was TREVI (Terrorisme, Radicalisme, Extrémisme et Violence
Internationale), created in 1976 by the EU ministers of justice and interior/home
affairs.2 Under this intergovernmental umbrella, a working group composed
of police and interior officials of the then ten European Community member
states dealt with the topics of terrorism, immigration and asylum. The first tentative
common threats assessments were produced, topics such as DNA genetic fingerprinting were broached and gradually the scope of the work grew. The Schengen Agreement of 1985, abolishing all internal borders between participating states in favour of a single external border, though not specifically dealing with terrorism, entailed stepped-up police, judicial and border cooperation throughout Europe. READ MORE

The Euro-Atlantic Brand. David Binder, Mediterranean Quarterly, Spring 2010, pp. 12-17.
"Euro-Atlantic" as a political power brand name was employed possibly for the first time in a 1985 speech by Bettino Craxi, then president of the European Council, when he spoke about "Italy's Euro-Atlantic role." Its political usage was codified in the label Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC), a group formed in 1997 and which now numbers fifty "partner" governments. EAPC is the successor to the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. (The NACC was created as an adjunct to NATO six years earlier in the first flush of post–Cold War Europe.) Among EAPC partners are not only eleven far-flung (and non-Atlantic-riparian) governments of the former Soviet Union—from Armenia to Uzbekistan—but also the six republics of the former Yugoslavia. Russia itself is listed among the partners, although its leaders remain highly suspicious of the NATO parent. READ MORE

The EU Enlargement Policy and National Majority-Minority Dynamics in Potential European Union Members: The Example of Turkey. Laman Tasch, Mediterranean Quarterly, Spring 2010, pp. 18-46. The absence of a universally accepted definition of minority and standardized mechanisms for minority protection presents challenges during the European Union (EU) accession process. The differences between definitions used by European policy makers and those used in candidate countries are evident in Turkey's journey to the EU. Cultural identity boundaries are dynamic, and emphasizing the protection of particular minority groups can be regarded as a minority-forging policy that places at risk the successful implementation of minority protection in the candidate country. READ MORE

Balancing, Bonding, and Balking: The European Union, the United States, and the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process. Christopher Hemmer, Mediterranean Quarterly, Volume 21, Number 2, Spring 2010, pp. 47-60. The increasing resources, albeit largely financial, that the European Union has committed to the Israeli?Palestinian relationship has led to increasing calls for the EU to take a greater political role in the peace process. In this essay the potential role of the EU in the Israeli?Palestinian conflict is examined in relation to that of the United States. For the EU to play a more influential role in the peace process, neither a pure balancing nor a pure bonding strategy is likely to work. Instead, the most promising strategy for the EU would be a bonding strategy combined with a threat to balk, to simply withhold support from US initiatives if Europe's views are not taken into account. READ MORE

Energy/Climate Change

Offshore Drilling. Is tougher federal oversight needed? CQ Researcher,  June 25, 2010, var. pp. The blowout two months ago at the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico has turned into one of the worst environmental catastrophes in U.S. history. Well owner BP failed in repeated attempts to stop the undersea gusher spilling millions of gallons, and experts say it may be months before it is brought under control. The blowout has exposed corner-cutting by BP and massive regulatory failures. READ MORE

What Hath Copenhagen Wrought? A Preliminary Assessment. Robert N. Stavins and Robert C. Stowe. Environment, May/June 2010, pp. 8-14. Although the original intent of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention at Copenhagen was to draft a new international agreement on climate change to follow the Kyoto protocol, the result after two weeks of negotiations was the Copenhagen Accord, a nonbinding agreement that called on participants to voluntarily submit quantified emissions-reduction targets or "nationally appropriate mitigation actions." By mid-March, a total of 109 parties had formally expressed support for the Accord. In this overview of the results of the conference, Robert N. Stavins and Robert C. Stowe argue that although the Copenhagen Accord is not enough, it is conceivable that the document will evolve into a subsequent agreement that will motivate meaningful action on climate change. READ MORE

Learning the Hard Way? European Climate Policy After Copenhagen. Contanze Haug and Frans Berkhout, Environment, May/June 2010, pp. 20-27. Prepared to take a leadership role in the development of a unifying global regime on climate change in Copenhagen, the European Union stumbled during the 2009 conference, raising questions about its ability to foster agreement. In this article, the authors consider the EU's role in climate discussions to date and evaluate its position in the new geopolitical climate as countries such as the United States, Brazil, China and South Africa step forward to promote a climate change model wholly different from the EU's. READ MORE

Moving Beyond Climate Change. Mike Hulme, Environment, May/June 2010, pp.  15-19. Amid cacophonous cries that the future of the planet was in peril, negotiators at Copenhagen failed to produce a climate-saving deal that would advance the decisions reached in the Kyoto agreement. Given the stalemate that the author calls on interested parties to reframe and redefine their strategies and goals to focus on ensuring sustainable livelihoods for all of the world's peoples, instead of on the science of climate change. READ MORE

Water Shortages. Is the United States Facing a Crisis? CQ Researcher,  June 18, 2010, var. pp. Clean water is a critical resource not only for drinking but also for agriculture, energy production and high-tech manufacturing. But severe drought — once seen as an issue only for the arid West — has become a fact of life in many parts of the United States. Meanwhile, many cities depend on water mains and sewer pipes more than 100 years old. Environmental laws have sharply cut water pollution and improved drinking-water quality since the 1970s. But experts say the nation needs to spend more than $250 billion in the next several years to modernize water treatment systems, and current investments are falling short. The Environmental Protection Agency has proposed new ways to regulate water pollutants, and economists say charging more for water would promote conservation. But whether Americans will pay more for a resource that many view as a basic human right remains to be seen. READ MORE

Economy & Financial Markets

Assessing the Financial Market Damage. George Melloan. Cato Journal, Spring 2010. var. pp. If there is a role for the government to play in restoring financial harmony it would have to be quite the opposite from the role Washington has played over the last decade, which has produced financial chaos. But the chances at this point that Washington will reverse its past practices and quietly withdraw to the sidelines so that the markets can make necessary corrections are quite slim, or, more precisely, non-existent. To be sure, the huge expansion of the Fed's balance sheet that results from agency debt and its massive purchases of mortgage-backed securities was an improvisation to deal with the financial crisis. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in the spring of 2009 that the Fed was trying to manage its balance sheet in a way that would avoid credit risk and credit allocation. From all indications, it hasn't succeeded very well, particularly in avoiding credit allocation. READ MORE

Creating Financial Harmony: What Role for Government versus the Market? Zanny Minton Beddoes. Cato Journal, Spring 2010. var. pp. The Cato Institute has coined a fresh phrase -- "financial harmony" -- to describe the challenge people face in the aftermath of the biggest financial mess since the Great Depression. Dramatically raising capital requirements, for instance, may reduce the odds of crises, but likely at the expense of costlier borrowing. Those who believe that modern finance has brought plenty of crises with few real economic benefits are keener to turn the clock back to an era of stodgy banks and plain vanilla products. Those who believe deregulation and inadequate supervision were the primary causes of the financial mess focus on the need for more stringent rules and closer oversight. The right route to financial harmony also depends on where you start from. Policy priorities are ultimately driven by political priorities. And the popular narrative now blames the crisis squarely on Wall Street. READ MORE

Coping with China's Financial Power. Ken Miller, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2010, var. pp. China's approach to economic development has turned the country into a lopsided giant, an export juggernaut with one huge financial arm. Following the reforms launched by Deng Xiaoping in 1979, Chinese businesses began using cheap labor and cheap capital to compete on the world market, with ever-increasing effectiveness. Today, Beijing continues to subsidize exports heavily. It does so directly, through favorable loans to businesses and favorable exchange rates to foreign buyers of Chinese goods. And it does so indirectly, through what economists call "financial repression," whereby the government imposes controls on the investment of Chinese citizens that allow it to funnel capital into Chinese businesses. The People's Bank of China has gathered a good portion of the enormous trade profits and cash inflows that have resulted. At the end of 2009, it held $2.4 trillion worth of foreign exchange. This is the largest amount of foreign exchange owned by any central bank in the world--and it does not even reflect the reserves held by China's major commercial banks. What is more, the figure is likely to grow by another $300 billion in 2010. READ MORE

Government Housing Policy and the Financial Crisis. Peter J Wallison. Cato Journal. Spring 2010. var. pp. Unfortunately, there is a strong argument that the financial crisis is indeed the fault of the US -- an artifact of the housing policies that this country has followed since the early 1990s. These policies produced an unprecedented number of subprime and other nonprime mortgages (known as Alt-A), and when the housing bubble topped out in late 2006 and early 2007, these loans began to default at unprecedented rates. The connection between these subprime and Alt-A loans and the financial crisis is somewhat more complex than their relationship to the recession. Obviously, the decline in housing values and consumer purchasing power had an adverse feedback effect on the health of commercial banks of all sizes that had made loans to the small and large businesses now beset with losses, and to the real estate developers and other businesses that relied on a growing housing market. READ MORE

The Great Crash of 2008: Causes and Consequences. Deepak Lal. Cato Journal. Spring 2010. var. pp. The current global financial crisis has eerie similarities, but different outcomes. First, both the crises arose because there was a surplus of savings in a number of countries -- the oil producers in the 1970s, the Asian economies and commodity exporters today -- which was recycled through the international banking system. Second, highly liquid banks imprudently funneled cheap credit to uncreditworthy borrowers: the fiscally challenged and inflation-prone countries of Latin America and Africa in the 1970s, the ninja (those with no income, no jobs, no assets) subprime mortgagees of the current crisis. Today the Western financial system seems to be dissolving before everyone's eyes, and with the US Federal Reserve's ever expanding balance sheet, bailouts are no longer the exception but the norm. Many now foretell a deep and perhaps prolonged recession, with deflation, rising unemployment, and Keynes' famed liquidity trap about to engulf the world's major economies. READ MORE

Reassesing the Fed'S Regulatory Role. Charles W Calomiris. Cato Journal. Spring 2010. var. pp. Reforms of regulatory content and structure should recognize that combining regulatory and monetary policy objectives within the Fed may be undesirable. The risks of adverse consequences from combining monetary policy and regulatory authority within the Fed are real and threaten the effectiveness of both its monetary and regulatory policies. Experience and logic suggest that most regulatory and supervisory tasks should not be placed within the Fed. There are, however, legitimate arguments for charging the Fed with certain responsibilities -- particularly, as a setter of time-varying macro prudential standards for the minimum capital or liquidity ratios of banks. If the Fed is charged with that role, however, it is important that the Fed exercise its responsibilities in a manner that reduces the risks of adverse consequences. The best means for doing so is for the Fed to adopt clear, transparent, and separate rules that guide its monetary policy targets and the variation over time in macro prudential standards. READ MORE

US Society & Values

Rosenberg, Brian WHAT I LEARNED FROM YOUTUBE.  Chronicle of Higher Education, April 23, 2010, pp. A40.  A middle-aged college president makes a video and is surprised by its popularity. Puzzled by the results, Brian Rosenberg, president of Macalester College in St. Paul, Minnesota, is nevertheless delighted by the 39,000 hits his video has had on YouTube in about a month. There have been several hundred email messages from alumni, parents, current and prospective students, as well as other college presidents. Messages have been received from as far away as Pakistan, Japan, Spain, Singapore, and China in response to Rosenberg’s humorous and self-parodying video. Rosenberg says, “We never imagined the video primarily as a fund-raising tool; rather, our goal was to entertain and engage people and capture something of the spirit of the college.” Responses to the college’s annual-fund solicitations have been positive. Brian Rosenberg points to three lessons learned that are of more importance than what he learned about his own limited gift of deadpan comedy, he concedes. First, things that happen on campuses assume a life and meaning of their own very rapidly – more so than a decade ago. Second, the new social media is not exclusively the province of the technically savvy or the young. Third, says Rosenberg, never underestimate the power of humor and positive messaging, particularly during times of economic and social stress.  READ MORE

Starobin, Paul.  CALIFORNIA GOES TO POT.  National Journal, June 26, 2010.  Pro-marijuana activists in California have succeeded in putting an initiative on the November ballot that would legalize pot for recreational use and give local governments the power to regulate and tax the marijuana trade. Should California vote yes, other states could follow its lead. READ MORE


   
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