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Topics in this Issue of
July 1, 2010
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President Barack Obama and President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia ride
together for lunch at Ray's Hell Burger in Arlington, Va., June 24,
2010. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza) |
Russia
Prisoners of the Caucasus. Charles King and
Rajan Menon, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2010, var. pages.
"A pernicious mix of heavy-handed rule, corrupt
governance, high unemployment, and militant Islam has reignited the
Russian North Caucasus. Today, it is not only the old conflict zone
of Chechnya but also its neighboring republics that are bordering on
open civil war."
READ MORE
The Resurgence of Russian Interests in
Central Asia. Scott G Frickenstein, Air & Space Power Journal,
Spring 2010, 67-74. "In order to analyze Russia's policy
toward Central Asia effectively, one must first understand the
Soviet and Russian historical legacy in the region. Following the
collapse of the USSR, Russia was initially indifferentborderline
irritated, in fact- toward Central Asia. Not surprisingly, the
region's fledgling nations looked for help elsewhere as they
ventured out of the Soviet nest. Russia soon became aware that it
had lost a great deal of influence in the region, but in the latter
half of Près. Boris Yeltsin's tenure, it regained very little clout
since Central Asians perceived a disconnect between Russia's 'walk'
and 'talk.' The era of Yeltsin's successor, Vladimir Putin,
witnessed both enhanced focus and rigorous reassertion of Russian
authority in the region. For each of these three periods, this
article analyzes the security, economic, and political aspects of
Russian foreign policy toward Central Asia and concisely assesses
the results of Russian efforts. Before concluding, it discusses two
important developments during Dmitry Medvedev's presidency, a period
of assertive Russian foreign policy that is still unfolding."
READ MORE
Non proliferation
Friends Don't Let Friends Proliferate.
Scott Helfstein, Political Science Quarterly, Summer 2010, pp.
281-308. "Scott Helfstein examines the efficacy of
economic sanctions as a tool to counter nuclear proliferation. He
argues that contrary to conventional wisdom, international
cooperation is not a key determinant in sanction success. Instead,
empirical evidence shows that sanctions have been effective at
altering nuclear policies only when the sanction sender and target
have had friendly relations."
READ MORE
NATO Experts Hedge on Nuclear Posture.
Oliver Meier, Arms Control Today, June 2010, pp. 36-38.
"A report delivered by a group made up largely of diplomats and
former officials on May 17 to NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh
Rasmussen does not give clear guidance on whether U.S. nuclear
weapons deployed in Europe should be withdrawn, saying that 'the
Alliance should be prepared for in-depth consultations on the future
role of nuclear weapons in its deterrence strategy.' The group also
recommends that NATO adopt the new negative security assurances
contained in the recent U.S. Nuclear Posture Review Report (see ACT,
May 2010), saying that "NATO should endorse a policy of not using or
threatening to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states that
are party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and in compliance
with their nuclear non-proliferation obligations."
READ
MORE
Stopping Proliferation Before It Starts.
Gregory L. Schulte, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2010, var.
pages. "It is probably too late to convince North Korea
and Iran to dismantle their nuclear programs. Rather than fixating on
the proliferation they are unable to prevent, concerned countries
should pay more attention to preventing proliferation to states that
have not yet decided to build nuclear weapons."
READ MORE
The North Korea Nuclear Problem: Sailing
into Uncharted Waters. Evans Revere, American Foreign Policy
Interests, May 2010, pp. 183 - 190. "A chilling
assessment of the choices facing North Korea (and, by extension, the
United States and its allies and partners) if it continues to defy
the international community by insisting that it will keep its
nuclear weapons."
READ MORE
AfPak
Defining Success in Afghanistan. Stephen
Biddle, Fotini Christia, and J Alexander Thier, Foreign Affairs,
July/August 2010, var. pages. "Since 2001, the West has
tried to build a strong centralized government in Afghanistan. But
such an approach fits poorly with the country's history and
political culture. The most realistic and acceptable alternative
models of governance are decentralized democracy and a system of
internal mixed sovereignty."
READ MORE
China’s Caution on Afghanistan–Pakistan.
Andrew Small, The Washington Quarterly, July 2010, pp. 81-97.
"The ongoing crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan looks
like a prime candidate for closer cooperation between the United
States and China. There are various broadly shared interests in
combating terrorism, containing rising extremism, and supporting the
stability of both states. With its extensive influence in Pakistan
and substantial economic capacity, Beijing has important assets to
bring to the table. In practice, however, efforts to achieve
convergence have proved frustrating. Differences run deep over how
to address the extremist threat and the broader geopolitics of the
region. And as is true of its foreign policy elsewhere, China
pursues a relatively narrow conception of its interests in
Afghanistan and Pakistan, rather than supporting a more widely
shared set of goals."
READ MORE
Afghanistan and Pakistan: Gaining a Grip,
Gareth Price, The World Today, July 2010, var. pages.
"All eyes are on Afghanistan. The American troop build-up continues,
while the British look forward to leaving. Across the border in
Pakistan, a convoy supplying those soldiers is torched close to the
capital. Security there is looking increasingly unsteady too;
various Taliban groups are gaining a grip. Time to keep an eye on
Pakistan as well."
READ MORE
Managing the Commons
From Global Village to Virtual Battlespace:
The Colonizing of the Internet and the Extension of Realpolitik.
Mary McEvoy Manjikian, International Studies Quarterly, June
2010, pp. 381-401. "From the earliest years of the
Internet's creation, cyberspace has been distinguished from other
types of political space because of three unique qualities: (i) its
ability to mobilize users, particularly 'outsiders' including those
who have not been easily included in political systems using
conventional means; (ii) its ability to quickly provide large
quantities of information of uncertain or unregulated quality; and
(iii) its ability to shrink distances between users, in some sense
rendering conventional physical geography irrelevant. This paper
presents three lenses for interpreting the significance of these
developments: utopian, liberal, and realist. Evolving doctrines of
cyberwarfare as put forth by China, Russia, and the United States in
particular stress the ways in which cyberspace presents a unique
security threat which may present greater advantages to nonstate
actors engaged in unconventional warfare. Differing economic,
political, and security policies derive from each lens."
READ MORE
Promoting Security in Common Domains. Shawn
Brimley, The Washington Quarterly, July 2010, pp. 119-132.
"The United States is at the beginning of a critical and lasting
national security imperative—to prepare U.S. institutions and the
American people for a set of cross-domain challenges in sea, air,
space, and cyberspace that demand new thinking and innovative
approaches."
READ MORE
Sanctions
China vs. the Western Campaign for Iran Sanctions. Willem
van Kemenade, The Washington Quarterly, July 2010. pp. 99-114.
The EU, Israel, and United States have been conducting
an intensive campaign of diplomatic skirmishes with Brazil, China,
Turkey, and others over imposing sanctions on Iran to stop it from
moving from enriching uranium to building nuclear weapons. The
sanctions needed to be ‘‘crippling’’ according to U.S. Secretary of
State Hillary Rodham Clinton, ‘‘massive’’ according to
President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, and ‘‘biting’’ according to
Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel.1 Yet, an operational consensus had not
been
obtained by May 2010. Some in the United States, particularly within
Congress,
appear willing to be indiscriminate in hitting not only the core of
the Iranian
regime but also the Iranian people, while Israel is defiantly
planning a
potentially catastrophic military attack on Iran’s nuclear sites
even without
the consent of the United States.2 On the other hand, Europeans want
to be
more circumspect and focus on targeting the hard core of Iran’s
regime rather
than its public.
READ MORE
Diplomacy Derailed: The Consequences
of Diplomatic Sanctions. Tara Maller, The Washington Quarterly, July
2010, pp. 61-79. The U.S. government has recently
begun to emphasize the need for greater engagement with problem
states. Proponents of this approach argue that diplomacy is
necessary, even with these regimes. Critics, however, maintain that
engagement with these regimes is tantamount to appeasement and
signals acceptance of behavior that ought to be condemned. In their
view, there is little
to be gained by talking to these states. Thus, diplomatic sanctions
or sanctions
characterized by political disengagement are seen as a low-cost
means of
isolating and delegitimizing regimes. Diplomatic sanctions, however,
entail a number of often overlooked consequences for the United
States. The potential costs of diplomatic
sanctions include not only a substantial loss of information and
intelligence
on the target state, but also a reduction in communication capacity
and a
diminished ability to influence the target state. Ironically,
diplomatic sanctions
may even undermine the effectiveness of other coercive policy tools,
such as
economic sanctions. These adverse effects ought to cause
policymakers to
reassess the value of diplomatic isolation as a tool of foreign
policy and recognize
the inherent value of diplomatic engagement.
READ MORE
EU Issues
EU Counterterrorism Strategy: Value
Added or Chimera? Rik Coolsaet, International Affairs, June
2010, pp. 857-873. Europe did not wake up to
terrorism on 9/11. Terrorism is solidly entrenched in Europe’s past.
Throughout its history, many of its member states have experienced a
wide variety of terrorism—left-wing, right-wing, separatist, social
and
religious, domestic as well as international. The main
characteristic of the counterterrorism approach in Europe has been
to consider terrorism a crime, to be tackled through criminal law.
Counterterrorism has long been confined within national
borders, aside from sporadic ad hoc cooperation in specific
cross-border dossiers.
In the early 1970s, terrorism slowly entered the realm of the
European
integration process.1 The first organized platform for European
counterterrorist
cooperation was TREVI (Terrorisme, Radicalisme, Extrémisme et
Violence
Internationale), created in 1976 by the EU ministers of justice and
interior/home
affairs.2 Under this intergovernmental umbrella, a working group
composed
of police and interior officials of the then ten European Community
member
states dealt with the topics of terrorism, immigration and asylum.
The first tentative
common threats assessments were produced, topics such as DNA genetic
fingerprinting were broached and gradually the scope of the work
grew. The Schengen Agreement of 1985, abolishing all internal
borders between participating states in favour of a single external
border, though not specifically dealing with terrorism, entailed
stepped-up police, judicial and border cooperation throughout
Europe.
READ MORE
The Euro-Atlantic Brand. David Binder,
Mediterranean Quarterly,
Spring 2010, pp. 12-17.
"Euro-Atlantic" as a political power brand name was employed
possibly for the first time in a 1985 speech by Bettino Craxi, then
president of the European Council, when he spoke about "Italy's
Euro-Atlantic role." Its political usage was codified in the label
Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC), a group formed in 1997 and
which now numbers fifty "partner" governments. EAPC is the successor
to the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. (The NACC was created as
an adjunct to NATO six years earlier in the first flush of post–Cold
War Europe.) Among EAPC partners are not only eleven far-flung (and
non-Atlantic-riparian) governments of the former Soviet Union—from
Armenia to Uzbekistan—but also the six republics of the former
Yugoslavia. Russia itself is listed among the partners, although its
leaders remain highly suspicious of the NATO parent.
READ MORE
The EU Enlargement Policy and National
Majority-Minority Dynamics in Potential European Union Members: The
Example of Turkey. Laman Tasch, Mediterranean Quarterly,
Spring 2010, pp. 18-46. The absence of a universally
accepted definition of minority and standardized mechanisms for
minority protection presents challenges during the European Union
(EU) accession process. The differences between definitions used by
European policy makers and those used in candidate countries are
evident in Turkey's journey to the EU. Cultural identity boundaries
are dynamic, and emphasizing the protection of particular minority
groups can be regarded as a minority-forging policy that places at
risk the successful implementation of minority protection in the
candidate country.
READ MORE
Balancing, Bonding, and Balking: The
European Union, the United States, and the Israeli-Palestinian Peace
Process. Christopher Hemmer, Mediterranean
Quarterly, Volume 21, Number 2, Spring 2010,
pp. 47-60. The increasing resources, albeit largely
financial, that the European Union has committed to the
Israeli?Palestinian relationship has led to increasing calls for the
EU to take a greater political role in the peace process. In this
essay the potential role of the EU in the Israeli?Palestinian
conflict is examined in relation to that of the United States. For
the EU to play a more influential role in the peace process, neither
a pure balancing nor a pure bonding strategy is likely to work.
Instead, the most promising strategy for the EU would be a bonding
strategy combined with a threat to balk, to simply withhold support
from US initiatives if Europe's views are not taken into account.
READ MORE
Energy/Climate Change
Offshore Drilling. Is tougher federal
oversight needed? CQ Researcher, June 25, 2010, var.
pp. The blowout two months ago at the Deepwater
Horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico has turned into one of the
worst environmental catastrophes in U.S. history. Well owner BP
failed in repeated attempts to stop the undersea gusher spilling
millions of gallons, and experts say it may be months before it is
brought under control. The blowout has exposed corner-cutting by BP
and massive regulatory failures.
READ MORE
What Hath Copenhagen Wrought? A
Preliminary Assessment. Robert N. Stavins and Robert C. Stowe.
Environment, May/June 2010, pp. 8-14. Although the
original intent of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention at
Copenhagen was to draft a new international agreement on climate
change to follow the Kyoto protocol, the result after two weeks of
negotiations was the Copenhagen Accord, a nonbinding agreement that
called on participants to voluntarily submit quantified
emissions-reduction targets or "nationally appropriate mitigation
actions." By mid-March, a total of 109 parties had formally
expressed support for the Accord. In this overview of the results of
the conference, Robert N. Stavins and Robert C. Stowe argue that
although the Copenhagen Accord is not enough, it is conceivable that
the document will evolve into a subsequent agreement that will
motivate meaningful action on climate change.
READ MORE
Learning the Hard Way? European
Climate Policy After Copenhagen. Contanze Haug and Frans Berkhout,
Environment, May/June 2010, pp. 20-27. Prepared to
take a leadership role in the development of a unifying global
regime on climate change in Copenhagen, the European Union stumbled
during the 2009 conference, raising questions about its ability to
foster agreement. In this article, the authors consider the EU's
role in climate discussions to date and evaluate its position in the
new geopolitical climate as countries such as the United States,
Brazil, China and South Africa step forward to promote a climate
change model wholly different from the EU's.
READ MORE
Moving Beyond Climate Change. Mike
Hulme, Environment, May/June 2010, pp. 15-19.
Amid cacophonous cries that the future of the planet was in peril,
negotiators at Copenhagen failed to produce a climate-saving deal
that would advance the decisions reached in the Kyoto agreement.
Given the stalemate that the author calls on interested parties to
reframe and redefine their strategies and goals to focus on ensuring
sustainable livelihoods for all of the world's peoples, instead of
on the science of climate change. READ MORE
Water Shortages. Is the United States
Facing a Crisis? CQ Researcher, June 18, 2010, var.
pp. Clean water is a critical resource not only for
drinking but also for agriculture, energy production and high-tech
manufacturing. But severe drought — once seen as an issue only for
the arid West — has become a fact of life in many parts of the
United States. Meanwhile, many cities depend on water mains and
sewer pipes more than 100 years old. Environmental laws have sharply
cut water pollution and improved drinking-water quality since the
1970s. But experts say the nation needs to spend more than $250
billion in the next several years to modernize water treatment
systems, and current investments are falling short. The
Environmental Protection Agency has proposed new ways to regulate
water pollutants, and economists say charging more for water would
promote conservation. But whether Americans will pay more for a
resource that many view as a basic human right remains to be seen.
READ MORE
Economy & Financial Markets
Assessing the Financial Market Damage.
George Melloan. Cato Journal, Spring 2010. var. pp.
If there is a role for the government to play in restoring financial
harmony it would have to be quite the opposite from the role
Washington has played over the last decade, which has produced
financial chaos. But the chances at this point that Washington will
reverse its past practices and quietly withdraw to the sidelines so
that the markets can make necessary corrections are quite slim, or,
more precisely, non-existent. To be sure, the huge expansion of the
Fed's balance sheet that results from agency debt and its massive
purchases of mortgage-backed securities was an improvisation to deal
with the financial crisis. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in the
spring of 2009 that the Fed was trying to manage its balance sheet
in a way that would avoid credit risk and credit allocation. From
all indications, it hasn't succeeded very well, particularly in
avoiding credit allocation.
READ MORE
Creating Financial Harmony: What Role
for Government versus the Market? Zanny Minton
Beddoes. Cato Journal, Spring 2010. var. pp.
The Cato Institute has coined a fresh phrase -- "financial
harmony" -- to describe the challenge people face in the aftermath
of the biggest financial mess since the Great Depression.
Dramatically raising capital requirements, for instance, may reduce
the odds of crises, but likely at the expense of costlier borrowing.
Those who believe that modern finance has brought plenty of crises
with few real economic benefits are keener to turn the clock back to
an era of stodgy banks and plain vanilla products. Those who believe
deregulation and inadequate supervision were the primary causes of
the financial mess focus on the need for more stringent rules and
closer oversight. The right route to financial harmony also depends
on where you start from. Policy priorities are ultimately driven by
political priorities. And the popular narrative now blames the
crisis squarely on Wall Street.
READ MORE
Coping with China's Financial Power. Ken Miller, Foreign
Affairs, July/August 2010, var. pp. China's approach
to economic development has turned the country into a lopsided
giant, an export juggernaut with one huge financial arm. Following
the reforms launched by Deng Xiaoping in 1979, Chinese businesses
began using cheap labor and cheap capital to compete on the world
market, with ever-increasing effectiveness. Today, Beijing continues
to subsidize exports heavily. It does so directly, through favorable
loans to businesses and favorable exchange rates to foreign buyers
of Chinese goods. And it does so indirectly, through what economists
call "financial repression," whereby the government imposes controls
on the investment of Chinese citizens that allow it to funnel
capital into Chinese businesses. The People's Bank of China has
gathered a good portion of the enormous trade profits and cash
inflows that have resulted. At the end of 2009, it held $2.4
trillion worth of foreign exchange. This is the largest amount of
foreign exchange owned by any central bank in the world--and it does
not even reflect the reserves held by China's major commercial
banks. What is more, the figure is likely to grow by another $300
billion in 2010.
READ MORE
Government Housing Policy and the
Financial Crisis. Peter J Wallison. Cato Journal. Spring 2010. var.
pp. Unfortunately, there is a strong argument that
the financial crisis is indeed the fault of the US -- an artifact of
the housing policies that this country has followed since the early
1990s. These policies produced an unprecedented number of subprime
and other nonprime mortgages (known as Alt-A), and when the housing
bubble topped out in late 2006 and early 2007, these loans began to
default at unprecedented rates. The connection between these
subprime and Alt-A loans and the financial crisis is somewhat more
complex than their relationship to the recession. Obviously, the
decline in housing values and consumer purchasing power had an
adverse feedback effect on the health of commercial banks of all
sizes that had made loans to the small and large businesses now
beset with losses, and to the real estate developers and other
businesses that relied on a growing housing market.
READ MORE
The Great Crash of 2008: Causes and
Consequences. Deepak Lal. Cato Journal. Spring 2010. var. pp.
The current global financial crisis has eerie
similarities, but different outcomes. First, both the crises arose
because there was a surplus of savings in a number of countries --
the oil producers in the 1970s, the Asian economies and commodity
exporters today -- which was recycled through the international
banking system. Second, highly liquid banks imprudently funneled
cheap credit to uncreditworthy borrowers: the fiscally challenged
and inflation-prone countries of Latin America and Africa in the
1970s, the ninja (those with no income, no jobs, no assets) subprime
mortgagees of the current crisis. Today the Western financial system
seems to be dissolving before everyone's eyes, and with the US
Federal Reserve's ever expanding balance sheet, bailouts are no
longer the exception but the norm. Many now foretell a deep and
perhaps prolonged recession, with deflation, rising unemployment,
and Keynes' famed liquidity trap about to engulf the world's major
economies.
READ MORE
Reassesing the Fed'S Regulatory Role.
Charles W Calomiris. Cato Journal. Spring 2010. var. pp.
Reforms of regulatory content and structure should recognize
that combining regulatory and monetary policy objectives within the
Fed may be undesirable. The risks of adverse consequences from
combining monetary policy and regulatory authority within the Fed
are real and threaten the effectiveness of both its monetary and
regulatory policies. Experience and logic suggest that most
regulatory and supervisory tasks should not be placed within the
Fed. There are, however, legitimate arguments for charging the Fed
with certain responsibilities -- particularly, as a setter of
time-varying macro prudential standards for the minimum capital or
liquidity ratios of banks. If the Fed is charged with that role,
however, it is important that the Fed exercise its responsibilities
in a manner that reduces the risks of adverse consequences. The best
means for doing so is for the Fed to adopt clear, transparent, and
separate rules that guide its monetary policy targets and the
variation over time in macro prudential standards.
READ MORE
US Society & Values
Rosenberg, Brian WHAT I LEARNED FROM
YOUTUBE. Chronicle of Higher Education, April 23,
2010, pp. A40. A middle-aged college president makes a video and is surprised by
its popularity. Puzzled by the results, Brian Rosenberg, president
of Macalester College in St. Paul, Minnesota, is nevertheless
delighted by the 39,000 hits his video has had on YouTube in about a
month. There have been several hundred email messages from alumni,
parents, current and prospective students, as well as other college
presidents. Messages have been received from as far away as
Pakistan, Japan, Spain, Singapore, and China in response to
Rosenberg’s humorous and self-parodying video. Rosenberg says, “We
never imagined the video primarily as a fund-raising tool; rather,
our goal was to entertain and engage people and capture something of
the spirit of the college.” Responses to the college’s annual-fund
solicitations have been positive. Brian Rosenberg points to three
lessons learned that are of more importance than what he learned
about his own limited gift of deadpan comedy, he concedes. First,
things that happen on campuses assume a life and meaning of their
own very rapidly – more so than a decade ago. Second, the new social
media is not exclusively the province of the technically savvy or
the young. Third, says Rosenberg, never underestimate the power of
humor and positive messaging, particularly during times of economic
and social stress.
READ MORE
Starobin, Paul. CALIFORNIA GOES TO
POT. National Journal, June 26, 2010.
Pro-marijuana activists in California have succeeded in putting an
initiative on the November ballot that would legalize pot for
recreational use and give local governments the power to regulate
and tax the marijuana trade. Should California vote yes, other
states could follow its lead.
READ MORE
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