AfPak

America at War: Can withdrawal from Afghanistan begin next July? Peter Katel, The CQ Researcher, July 23, 2010, pp. 605-628. "Americans' discontent over the war in Iraq helped propel Barack Obama into the White House. U.S. forces now are preparing to leave Iraq next year, but they may remain in Afghanistan longer than many Obama supporters had hoped. In recent weeks, heavy resistance has delayed anti-Taliban operations. At the same time, relations between the United States and Afghan President Hamid Karzai remain tense, partly because of U.S. worries over corruption in his government. Overall, Afghanistan is proving a bigger challenge than Obama might have anticipated when he said a military surge now under way would be followed by a troop “drawdown” in July 2011. Meanwhile, Gen. David Petraeus, who replaced Gen. Stanley McChrystal as Afghanistan commander, said the drawdown will be gradual — and could even be postponed. Petraeus also said a potential new agreement could stretch out the Iraqi pullout deadline as well. Republicans generally back Obama's military commitments, but some Democrats are getting anxious." READ MORE

Lessons from Afghanistan and Iraq. Zalmay Khalilzad, Journal of Democracy, July 2010, pp. 41-49. "After almost ten years of complex and costly efforts to build democracy in these two countries, where do things stand? What lay behind the critical choices that shaped events in these places, and what are their current prospects for success?" READ MORE

China’s Afghan Dilemma. Raffaello Pantucci, Survival, August-September 2010 , pp. 21-27. The announcement that American forces in Afghanistan would start to draw down by July 2011 highlighted, for China, the need for a conversation about what exactly its interests in its neighbour are, and what it is willing to do about them. Beijing’s primary security concern with Afghanistan is the potential that instability and terrorism might be exported to China’s far-western Xinjiang province, where the ethno-separatist tendencies of the large Uighur Muslim minority have in the past been linked to al-Qaeda militancy. Currently, China is reliant on the United States and NATO to deal with Uighur separatists within Afghanistan, which occurs as a byproduct of operations against the Afghan Taliban and related groups. Many Chinese analysts remain unconvinced that NATO will succeed. Most see Afghanistan as the ‘graveyard of Empires’, an assessment they gleefully
share with foreign analysts, and which captures a residual sense amongst some Chinese planners who see the United States as an enemy whose losses are advantages to Beijing. READ MORE

The Networker: Afghanistan’s first media mogul. Ken Auletta, The New Yorker, July 5, 2010, var. pages.  "Every day in Kabul, politicians and journalists in search of information come to a barricaded dead-end street in the Wazir Akbar Khan district to see Saad Mohseni, the chairman of Moby Group, Afghanistan’s preëminent media company. Saad Mohseni’s shows entertain and liberalize. “One of the reasons Afghanistan has not exploded is that the media give people an outlet,” he says." READ MORE

Engaging Pakistan's moderate majority. Amil Khan, Foreign Policy, July 22, 2010, var. pages. "Pakistan's religious landscape is as varied as the ethnic mix that makes up the population. For the vast majority of Pakistanis, Islam is a religion of live and let live that calls on political leaders to ensure social justice and gives the lay follower plenty of opportunity to exercise and express his or her spirituality thorough celebrations and devotion to saints. However, extremism also has a long history in the area that is now Pakistan." READ MORE

Muslim World

The Shifting Sands of State Power in the Middle East. Alastair Crooke, The Washington Quarterly, July 2010, pp. 7-20. "Three key events that took place more than 20 years ago are still overturning Middle Eastern conventional state politics, economics, and Islam, requiring analysts and policymakers to reconceptualize what they think they know about Israel–Palestine, Iran, and the rest of the region." READ MORE

Veiled Truths. Marc Lynch, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2010, var. pages.  "In The Flight of the Intellectuals, Paul Berman argues that it is not violent Islamists who pose the greatest danger to liberal societies in the West but rather their so-called moderate cousins, such as Tariq Ramadan. Such a reading of contemporary Islamism, however, misses the many nuances of the movement and the real battles between reformers and Salafists." READ MORE

Political Attitudes in the Muslim World Ephraim Yuchtman-Ya’ar and Yasmin, Alkalay, Journal of Democracy, July 2010, var. pages. "A new look at the World Values Survey data reveals how the Muslim world’s religious context affects individual Muslims’ attitudes toward democracy." READ MORE

Intelligence Agencies

US Intelligence at the Crossroads. William W. Ellis, Mediterranean Quarterly, Spring 2010, pp. 1-11. "US intelligence activities have changed in recent years because of changing global political conditions. Using sophisticated technologies, intelligence agencies now conduct surveillance of a wide variety of organizations and an enormous number of people, including many US citizens. This has generated a vast amount of data that these agencies have not been able to use productively, in spite of the expenditure of many billions of dollars, mostly with private firms. Some 70 percent of the approximately $75 billion spent on intelligence annually is spent on these firms. The author discusses a number of serious problems with these developments." READ MORE

Why Intelligence and Policymakers Clash. Robert Jervis, Political Science Quaterly, Summer 2010, pp. 185-204.  "Robert Jervis argues that friction between intelligence agencies and policymakers is an inevitable product of their conflicting missions and needs. Policymakers need political and psychological support, while intelligence generally raises doubts, points to problems, and notes uncertainties. Relations do not have to be as strained as they were under President George W. Bush, but they will always be difficult." READ MORE

Terrorism

Is Yemen the Next Afghanistan? Robert F. Worth, New York Times Magazine. July 6, 2010, var. pp. [...] Sana resembles a fortress, not just in its architecture but in its geography. It is set on a high plateau, surrounded by arid, craggy mountains. At its heart is the Old City, a thicket of unearthly medieval towers and banded spires that stands out sharply in the dry desert air. This was the entire city until a few decades ago, its high walls locked every evening at dusk. Today Sana is a far more sprawling place, with Internet cafes and swarms of beat-up taxis and a sprinkling of adventure tourists. The Old City gates are mostly gone now, and although men still carry the traditional daggers known as jambiyas in their belts, they also wear blazers, often with cheap designer logos on their sleeves. Like other Arab capitals, it is full of policemen, and there are occasional checkpoints manned by bored-looking soldiers in camouflage uniforms.  But Yemen is different. Beneath the familiar Arab iconography, like pictures of the president that hang in every shop, there is a wildness about the place, a feeling that things might come apart at any moment. A narcotic haze descends on Yemen every afternoon, as men stuff their mouths with glossy khat leaves until their cheeks bulge and their eyes glaze over. Police officers sit down and ignore their posts, a green dribble running down their chins. Taxi drivers get lost and drive in circles, babbling into their cellphones. But if not for the opiate of khat, some say, all of Yemen - not just those areas of the south and north already smoldering with discontent - would explode into rebellion. READ MORE

Europol and EU Counterterrorism: International Security Actorness in the External Dimension. Christian Kaunert, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, June 2010, pp. 652-671.
This article offers an analysis of Europol’s security actorness in the external dimension
of EU counterterrorism. While Europol has attracted some scholarly attention, not so
much work has focused on the meaning of its international agreements in counterterrorism. This article aims to investigate the international actorness of Europol at the international level in relation to the fight against international terrorism. It offers original conceptual insights based on empirical case studies of international agreements:
Europol agreements with U.S. law enforcement, as well as Europol agreements with
countries in the European Neighbourhood policy. READ MORE

An End to the Fourth Wave of Terrorism? Leonard Weinberg and William Eubank
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, June 2010, pp. 594 — 602. It is widely believed that the current wave of religiously inspired terrorism will persist for the foreseeable future. Is this necessarily the case? This article asserts that this present wave may be cresting, much like previous waves in the modern history of terrorist violence. Further, the article goes on to forecast not an end to terrorism in general, but the likely emergence of still new manifestations of terrorist violence. READ MORE

EU Issues

So Europe Ends at the Bosporus? David A. Andelman, World Policy Journal, Summer 2010, pp. 91-98. There is one largely unheralded, and outside its own frontiers probably little mourned, casualty of the European crisis of confidence— Turkey. In its decades-long aspiration to become a member of the European community, this nation on the fringes of the continent’s southeastern frontier has played the part of the poor little orphan boy, nose pressed firmly against the glass shop window filled with sweets. Somehow, Turkey, despite its most valiant efforts, has never managed to find a way inside. This may no longer matter. Turkey appears to have all but given up on its aspirations and is finally prepared to cast its lot with the Middle East—neighboring nations it’s traded with, even ruled, for centuries. If there was any more persuasive evidence of this new reality, it was Turkey’s sudden and dramatic confrontation over the Gaza blockade with Israel, whose own fate is so closely bound to Europe and America. The central question facing the European Union as it stares down the barrel of
potential fiscal collapse isn’t which nation will fail next, but which nations should not
have been invited in the first place. READ MORE

Budget Crunch: Implications for European Defence. Bastian Giegerich, Survival, August-September 2010, pp. 87-98. The global financial crisis of 2007-08 and the subsequent recession in most European economies has created a new dynamic for defence spending. Even before the crisis, the punishing demands of operations on armed forces revealed shortfalls in capabilities and the cost of new equipment was rising at a rate of 5-10% per year. As both trends continue, European governments now struggling to control public deficits have launched a series of austerity measures across the board. In the overall scheme of government priorities, defence spending has become discretionary and many defence ministers have already been asked to make do with less money. There are two basic options in light of these developments: either lower ambitions and accept that reduced financial resources will lead to reduced capabilities, or use the budget crunch as an opportunity to do things differently, to protect capability and perhaps even improve it. If budgetary pressure leads to structural reforms that eliminate unnecessary legacy capabilities and focus on capabilities relevant to present operations and future contingencies, this crisis will be a blessing in disguise. READ MORE

NATO

Illusive Visions and Practical Realities: Russia, NATO and Missile Defence. Richard Weitz, Survival, August-September 2010, pp. 99-120. NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has become a surprisingly strong advocate of missile-defence cooperation with Moscow, making it a core element of his programme to improve NATO-Russia relations. Nonetheless, the recurring obstacles that have long impeded extensive NATO-Russian BMD cooperation largely persist, making it unlikely the parties can realise Rasmussen's ambitious goals. Pursuing them risks generating yet another round of mutual recriminations resulting from frustrated expectations. It would be more profitable to focus on harmonising threat assessments, pursuing shared early-warning capabilities, strengthening barriers against accidental or unauthorised missile launches, and collaborating more to curtail ballistic-missile proliferation. Joint BMD projects cannot be used to create a political consensus on missile defense when it does not already exist. READ MORE

Navigating Troubled Waters: NATO’s Maritime Strategy. Jason Alderwick and Bastian Giegerich, Survival, August-September 2010, pp. 13-20. While NATO is, fundamentally, a political and military alliance, it is also, as its very name suggests, a maritime alliance. Its members and geographic areas of interest are linked by sea. NATO Allies are the principal beneficiaries of globalisation dependent on accessible and open sea lanes of
communication and, when needed, the ability to project power across the maritime domain. At a time when around 90% of world trade and about 80% of global hydrocarbon flows depend on shipment by sea, maritime forces have a unique and unmatched capacity to demonstrate global reach and flexibility and to establish an enduring presence if required. READ MORE

Implications of a Changing NATO. Phillip R. Cuccia, Strategic Studies Institute, May 2010, var. pp. NATO officials plan to unveil the new North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Strategic Concept during the Alliance’s summit in Portugal at the end of 2010. This monograph focuses on the impact that the Strategic Concept will have on the Alliance. This analysis describes recent trends within NATO and their implications, and provides senior military and political leaders with a discussion of the changing composition of the NATO nations and the impact of these changes on the nature of the Alliance. The monograph describes four possible scenarios of what NATO could look like in the future so as to give senior leaders thoughts to consider while instituting NATO policy. In terms of NATO relevance, the prevailing thought at the close of the Cold War was that NATO needed to find a suitable common threat to substitute for the former Soviet Union. That role was initially filled by the threat of destabilization with the crisis in the Balkans and then by the NATO response to September 11, 2001 (9/11) and global terrorism. NATO’s response was guided by a Strategic Concept written in 1999 which did not directly address global terrorism. The Strategic Concept was supplemented in 2006 with the Comprehensive Political Guidance which provided a framework and political direction for NATO’s continuing transformation and set priorities for all Alliance capability issues for the following 10 to 15 years. READ MORE