North Korea

The Collapse of North Korea: Military Missions and Requirements. Bruce W Bennett, Jennifer Lind, International Security, Fall 2011, pp. 84-119. “In North Korea, the upcoming leadership transition in the Kim Jong-il regime will be a precarious time for the Kim family's hold on power. A collapse of the North Korean government could have several dangerous implications for East Asia, including "loose nukes," a humanitarian disaster, a regional refugee crisis, and potential escalation to war between China and the United States. To respond to a collapse and these problems, neighboring countries may perform several military missions to stabilize North Korea. These include the location and securing of North Korean weapons of mass destruction, stability operations, border control, conventional disarmament, and combat/deterrence operations. Assuming that collapse occurs in a relatively benign manner, military missions to stabilize North Korea could require 260,000 to 400,000 troops. If collapse occurs after a war on the peninsula, or if it sparks civil war in North Korea, the number of missions -- and their requirements -- would grow. Because of the size and complexity of these missions, and because of the perils associated with mismanaging them, advance and combined planning is essential. Combined planning should include those actors (e.g., China, South Korea, and the United States) that could otherwise take destabilizing action to protect their own interests.” READ MORE

Inside the Authoritarian State : North Korea's State-Loyalty Advantage. B. R. Myers, Journal of International Affairs, Fall/Winter 2011, pp. 115-130. “Although North Korea's northern border remains easy to cross, and North Koreans are now well aware of the prosperity enjoyed south of the demilitarized zone, Kim Jong Il continues to rule over a stable and supportive population. Kim enjoys mass support due to his perceived success in strengthening the race and humiliating its enemies. Thanks in part to decades of skillful propaganda, North Koreans generally equate the race with their state, so that ethno-nationalism and state-loyalty are mutually enforcing. In this respect North Korea enjoys an important advantage over its rival, for in the Republic of Korea ethnonationalism militates against support for a state that is perceived as having betrayed the race. South Koreans' "good race, bad state" attitude is reflected in widespread sympathy for the people of the North and in ambivalent feelings toward the United States and Japan, which are regarded as friends of the republic but enemies of the race. But North Korea cannot survive forever on the public perception of state legitimacy alone. The more it loses its economic distinctiveness vis-à-vis the rival state, the more the Kim regime must compensate with triumphs on the military and nuclear fronts. Another act of aggression against the Republic of Korea may well take place in the months ahead, not only to divert North Korean public attention from the failures of the consumer-oriented "Strong and Prosperous Country" campaign, but also to strengthen the appeasement-minded South Korean opposition in the run-up to the presidential election in 2012.” READ MORE

Pyongyang Should Pay for the Food it Seeks. Mark Fitzpatrick, Survival, Oct/Nov 2011, pp. 21-27. “Fitzpatrick asserts that North Korea should pay for the food it seeks. After what, in 2010, was a year of North Korean bellicosity, 2011 has become a year of North Korean diplomacy. Pyongyang's purpose in turning a supplicant face to the world is two-fold. It seeks to entice food aid--albeit not necessarily to relieve starvation--and to be accorded equal footing with the nuclear-armed US. For its part, Washington re-opened bilateral talks this summer, even though it knows its own goal--denuclearisation of North Korea--is at present beyond reach. It made sense to talk. Without giving in to blackmail, the US and its allies must find a way to keep North Korea from engaging in further provocations that next time could well escalate to war.” READ MORE

The Korean Peninsula on the verge. Armstrong, Charles K., Current History, September 2011, pp. 229-235. “The author discusses the U.S. government's policy towards North Korea and the limitations and dangers of the strategic patience policy that is based on a misinterpretation of the North Korean regime. North Korea, though incomparably economically worse than its neighbors, does not show signs of the severe economic distress it once did, signaling that it is doing reasonably well economically. Also discussed is the six party talks that led to an economic agreement between former South Korean president Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, the unraveling relations prompted by the policies of the conservative government of Lee Myung-bak, and the cold war mentality that exists in the Korean peninsula.” READ MORE

A New Kind of Korea. Geun-hye, Park, Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2011, pp. 13-18. “The article focuses on efforts for peace building between North Korea and South Korea in 2011. Topics include possible military brinkmanship between the countries, a contrast between the military policies of the two areas, and negotiations. It is suggested that a policy based around trustpolitik, or building trust, should be pursued to build peace between Seoul in the south and Pyongyang in the north through South Korean reactions to North Korea's threats of nuclear aggression, alignment policy between international efforts and South Korean policy, and international cooperation through alliances with China, the U.S., and Europe.” READ MORE

NATO

NATO’s role in the Strategic Concept debate: Watchdog, fire-fighter, neighbour or seminar leader? Charlotte Wagnsson, Cooperation and Conflict, December 2011, pp. 482-501. “This article argues that traditional Westphalian powers are increasingly pressured to move beyond Westphalia towards institutionalization of security cooperation and a broader definition of referent objects of security. Focusing on the case of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), it notes that the Alliance is severely torn between traditional constructions of ‘the self’ and a need for change. Exploring how NATO handles this dilemma, the article examines how the Alliance articulated its constitutive story during the strategic concept process of 2009–10. Four roles are crystallized from the reading of the narrative: the fire-fighter, the watchdog, the good neighbour and the seminar leader.” READ MORE

How Afghanistan has Strengthened NATO. Alexnder Mattelaer, Survival, December 2011–January 2012, pp. 127–140. “In a farewell speech in Brussels, outgoing US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates painted a bleak future for NATO. The Alliance’s failings are well known: NATO members appear increasingly divided ‘between those willing and able to pay the price and bear the burdens of Alliance commitments, and those who enjoy the benefits of NATO membership … but don’t want to share the risks and the costs’. Budget pressures are bringing closer the prospect of ‘collective military irrelevance’. Should European leaders not redress this state of affairs, the United States may reconsider its underwriting of European security, which would herald, in Gates’s words, ‘a dim, if not dismal future of the transatlantic Alliance’.” READ MORE

Middle East

No Marshall Plan for the Middle East. Amitai Etzioni, PRISM, December 2011, var. pages. “A number of politicians, U.S. military leaders, and academics have called for a Middle East Marshall Plan—a massive, transformative aid program analogous to the one implemented in Europe after World War II. Although the idea is appealing, there is no way to bring anything remotely resembling the Marshall Plan to the Middle East, and attempts to launch one are likely to cause some undesirable side effects. The sociological, cultural, and structural conditions in postwar Europe were favorable for implementing a large-scale aid program; the opposite is true in today's Middle East. Germany had competent government personnel and relatively low levels of corruption, while in many Middle Eastern nations, corruption is endemic and pervasive. Many Middle Eastern states lack the industrial bases, infrastructure, educated populations, and strong support for science and technology, corporations, business, and commerce institutions that were reconstructed in Germany after World War II. Instead of attempting to create a large-scale transformative program, the United States should scale back to less demanding ambitions, focus on security instead of regime change, work to create favorable trade conditions, and allow for humanitarian aid.” READ MORE

An Unfinished Revolution. Shadi Hamid, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Fall 2011, pp. 70-78. “On 25 January 2011, the first day of Egypt’s uprising, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton affirmed: “our assessment is that the Egyptian government is stable.”1 Eighteen days later, Egypt had a revolution, which concluded when the Egyptian military forced President Hosni Mubarak to step down from his position. After this remarkable turn of events, the Egyptian regime was simultaneously thought to be both more ruthless and more unified. After several years of impressive economic growth, the regime had the support of a powerful emerging business elite. It also had the United States as its primary benefactor. None of that was enough. On the night of the revolution, I was in Tahrir Square. The crowd erupted in cheers, chanting, “You’re Egyptian! Raise your head up high!” when they heard the announcement. The Muslim Brotherhood youth activist Abdelrahman Ayyash sent me a short, simple text message: “We did it.” And they had. For Egypt’s new revolutionaries—many of them young and some of them still in college—the revolution is far from complete though. In some ways, the transition phase will prove just as critical as the revolution itself.” READ MORE

The Middle East in Flux. Michael C. Hudson, Current History, December 2011, pp. 364-369. “The contagion effect created by the regime changes in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya suggests a significant degree of imagined community among Arabs everywhere.” READ MORE

Drone Warfare: Blowback from the New American Way of War. Leila Hudson, Colin S. Owens, Matt Flannes, Middle East Policy, Fall 2011, pp. 122-132. “Drone warfare has complicated the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, a sisyphean counterinsurgency and nationbuilding project, by provoking militant attacks in Afghanistan as well as Pakistan. At the strategic level, fragmented U.S. intelligence and military policies are working at cross purposes, eroding trust through “covert” drone warfare on the Pakistani side of the Durand line while trying tardily to build trust on the Afghan side. The growing outrage of Pakistani society came to a head in spring 2011 over the Raymond Davis incident and the Abbottabad raid that killed Osama bin Laden. These events put great stress on relations between the United States and the world’s most volatile nuclear state.” READ MORE

The Arab Spring: America’s Search for Relevancy. Robert J. Pranger, Mediterranean Quarterly, Fall 2011, pp. 20-35. “In its essence, the Arab Spring is about ‘being Arab,’ in the words of the late Lebanese journalist Samir Kassir. This essay explores the two fold meaning of this Arab awakening as the emergence of a homogeneous yet plural field of Arab culture and its integration into the mosaic of global culture. Also assessed are America’s careful and selective search for relevancy in this veritable revolution sweeping across the Middle East, the impact of fast-moving events on the US-Israel relationship, and the long-term significance of the Arab Spring for future American policy in the region.” READ MORE

Russia

Russia’s Post-Imperial Condition. Dmitri Trenin, Current History, October 2011, pp. 272-276. “Focused mainly on itself, and trying to avoid being dominated by any other countries, Moscow is striving to reconstitute itself as a great power.” READ MORE

What Is Central Asia to Us? Michael Rywkin, American Foreign Policy Interests, September 2011, pp. 222-229. “The thesis of the article is that Central Asia is a region of great importance to its neighbors who, in turn, are of great relevance to the United States and cannot, therefore, be considered of secondary importance to the latter. Central Asia is significant to Russia, China, and the Muslim Middle East, but it is not given sufficient attention by Washington despite appeals by many American experts in the field. For strategic reasons, Moscow cannot permit the region to fall under Chinese, American, or Islamist domination. The region also supplies Russia with much needed cheap labor. At the same time, Central Asia is increasingly becoming valuable to Beijing as a nearby source of energy and minerals and to the Muslim world as its recently recovered Northward extension. The article summarizes key goals of U.S. policy in the area that includes preventing Russia from regaining support for democratization and human rights, and stopping terrorism and narco-traffic from gaining a foothold. However, the author regrets that all the aforementioned U.S. policies are general U.S. policies applicable throughout the world with not much effort being made to devise specific policies tailored for the region in general and for the needs of the individual republics in particular." READ MORE

Challenges to Russia in Central Asia. Stephen J. Blank, American Foreign Policy Interests, 1 September 2011 , pp. 209-221. “Russia seeks to reintegrate Central Asia around its power and authority and to that end deploys all the instruments of power available to it. However, it also faces several challenges in Central Asia. Some of those challenges to its policy stem from the possibility of terrorism or a Taliban victory in Afghanistan. Others come from the prospect of potential domestically generated instability in Central Asia that could be the result of a succession of domestic crises or due to the influence of events like the Arab Spring of 2011. Another set of challenges come from other major actors like China and the United States who have important if not vital interests in Central Asia and who can block Russian ambitions there. At the same time Central Asian states can either resist Russia on their own in some cases or alternatively can form tactical alliances with governments like China or the United States. This essay investigates those challenges to Russia and their implications for Central Asian security.” READ MORE

The Dying Bear. Nicholas Eberstadt, Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec2011, pp. 95-108. “An essay is presented on demography in Russia. The author argues that since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has undergone a demographic crisis. He asserts that the country's population has been dwindling, its mortality rates are dangerously high, and that Russia suffers from an erosion in human capital.” READ MORE

EU Issues

How to Strengthen the European External Action Service. Stefan Lehne, CEIP, December 16, 2011, var. pp. The European Union is currently going through one of the most difficult periods of its existence. While the focus is on the efforts to save the euro, its foreign policy arm, the European External Action Service (EEAS), is struggling as well. Originally conceived in a more optimistic era, the foreign policy reforms of the Treaty of Lisbon are being implemented against this backdrop of crisis and loss of confidence. There is a risk that under these conditions, implementation will fall short of the full potential of the Lisbon reforms. Roughly one year after its establishment, the EEAS still suffers from a number of design flaws. It has an insufficient resource base and there is a lack of genuine buy-in on the parts of both the member states and the European Commission. These flaws can be overcome, however, if corrective action is taken. READ MORE

Moment of Truth. Bruce Stokes, The National Journal, December 2011, var. pp Germany’s chancellor can save Europe. But it means betraying her voters. The symbolism was perfect, even though it was purely accidental. The setting: the German Finance Ministry, a dull gray edifice on Wilhelmstrasse that once served as Luftwaffe chief Hermann Goering’s headquarters. The scene: a discussion with two Finance Ministry officials. The backdrop: a tall window that framed a Greek flag atop that nation’s neighboring consulate, fluttering in the distance against a crisp blue November sky. The euro crisis—which started in Greece in 2010, spread to Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, and now threatens to engulf Italy—seems to loom over nearly all discussions here these days among officials, pundits, and business leaders. Early in the crisis, the Germans evinced denial. Later came frustration. Now they telegraph a grim resignation about the economic challenges ahead, including the possible breakup of the 17-nation eurozone. Yet, for the first time, they are also hopeful that Germany, facing the demise of the common currency that Berlin was instrumental in creating, is finally ready to show more leadership. READ MORE

Enlargement and the Environment: The Changing Behaviour of the European Parliament. Charlotte Burns, Neil Carter and Nicholas Worsfold, Journal of Common Market Studies, January 2012, pp 54-70. It was widely anticipated before European Union enlargement that the accession states would have a negative impact on EU environmental governance. By extension, the European Parliament’s (EP) reputation as an environmental champion might be threatened by the influx of MEPs from accession states. An analysis of all EP amendments to environmental legislation between 1999 and 2009 reveals that post-enlargement the EP was more successful at securing the adoption of its amendments into law but that these amendments were less radical. These changes arise from the institutional adaptation prompted by enlargement and a broad ideological shift to the right within the EP.  READ MORE

Explaining EU Activism and Impact in Global Climate Politics: Is the Union a Norm- or Interest-Driven Actor? Louise Van Schaik and Simon Schunz. Journal of Common Market Studies, January 2012, var. pp. This contribution examines the driving factors behind the European Union’s activism in global climate politics since the mid-1990s. Two alternatives are considered: norms and interests. Norms underlying the EU’s stance include its belief in multilateralism, sustainable development and the precautionary principle. Interests comprise economic opportunities and the climate change–security nexus. It is argued here that the normative orientation has dominated the EU’s ‘leading by example’ strategy in global negotiations. In Copenhagen, it yielded little influence as it was insufficiently geared towards the context of the negotiations. This challenges the notion of ‘normative power’ Europe and makes a review of the Union’s external climate policy necessary. READ MORE

U.S. Issues

Making a Case for Workplace Flexibility. Kathleen Christensen and Barbara Schneider, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, November 2011, pp. 6-20. “Fifteen years ago, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation charted a dramatically new direction by developing a program of research, practice, and action to explore the disconnect between the needs of today’s families and the demands of U.S. workplaces. Allocating more than a hundred million dollars to this initiative, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation’s Workplace, Work Force and Working Families Program was established to “enhance scholarly, business, and public understanding of the challenges facing today’s working families and to identify how the workplace can be restructured to meet employees’ work-family needs, as well as employers’ performance needs” (Alfred P. Sloan Foundation 2010b). This volume of The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science makes a case for workplace flexibility. The articles are based on a series of research papers that were presented at a 2010 national conference, hosted by the Sloan Foundation and the Georgetown Law Center’s Workplace Flexibility 2010 program, which examined the changing U.S. workforce and its implications for how, when, and where people work.” READ MORE

Water Crisis in the West: Do shortages imperil the region's growth? Peter Katel, The CQ Researcher, December 9, 2011, pp. 1025-1048. “Across the West, water is becoming an endangered resource as a warming climate adds new stress to an already strained supply. Drought is devastating Texas; flows of the Colorado River — vital to a seven-state region — have become more uncertain; and important underground aquifers are being depleted in several states. As concern about shortages grows, conflicts among housing developers, farmers and environmentalists are increasing. Agriculture is in the spotlight because it accounts for about 80 percent of Western water consumption. Farmers say they're far more careful about conservation than many suburban residents, with their swimming pools and thirsty lawns. Water conflicts go back a long way in the nation's most arid region. But a growing number of Western water-policy experts say cooperation, compromise and conservation offer the only practical approaches to cope with rising demands on the region's water supply.” READ MORE

Social Networks as a Shortcut to Correct Voting. John Barry Ryan, American Journal of Political Science, October 2011, pp. 753–766. “This article reports on a small group experiment studying how the preferences of an individual's social network affect her ability to vote for the candidate who will provide her with the greater benefit on both valence issues and position issues. The research diverges from traditional formal models and experimental studies of social communication by expanding the communication network beyond the dyad. The results suggest that social communication is a useful information shortcut for uninformed independents, but not uninformed partisans. Informed individuals incorporate biased social messages into their candidate evaluations, which results in higher levels of incorrect voting in certain types of networks.” READ MORE

The Influence of Foreign Voices on U.S. Public Opinion. Danny Hayes, Matt Guardino, American Journal of Political Science, October 2011, pp. 831–851. “Public opinion in the lead-up to the 2003 Iraq War presents a puzzle. Despite the fact that domestic political elites publicly voiced little opposition to the invasion, large numbers of Americans remained opposed to military action throughout the pre-war period, in contrast to the predictions of existing theory. We argue that some rank-and-file Democrats and independents expressed opposition because of the widely reported antiwar positions staked out by foreign, not domestic, elites. Merging a large-scale content analysis of news coverage with public opinion surveys from August 2002 through March 2003, we show that Democrats and independents—especially those with high levels of political awareness—responded to dissenting arguments articulated in the mass media by foreign officials. Our results, which constitute the first empirical demonstration of foreign elite communication effects on U.S. public opinion, show that scholars must account for the role played by non-U.S. officials in prominent foreign policy debates.” READ MORE

College Football: Is the drive for prestige and profit out of control? Kenneth Jost, The CQ Researcher, November 18, 2011, pp. 977-1000. “College football, the nation's third-most-popular spectator sport after pro football and baseball, has millions of devoted fans but also a growing number of critics who say the game has become a multibillion-dollar business increasingly in conflict with colleges' core educational mission. Major football schools spend lavishly to field top teams and reap millions in revenues, but most colleges actually lose money on athletics overall. Players earn millions for schools and private companies but must shortchange academics because of demanding schedules. The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) is proposing changes to help players and tighten academic standards, but it has little power to control schools' spending. Meanwhile, big-time football schools are jockeying for position in conference realignments. And the game drew more unwelcome attention with the firing of Penn State's legendary head coach, Joe Paterno, in a child sex-abuse scandal involving a former assistant.” READ MORE